Happy Valley · 2019-11-20
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHINING ACE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by J Size, won by DH, with AURORA PEGASUS second and WINNING METHOD third. The 3.7 favourite LONE EAGLE finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SHINING ACE B 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | DH |
| 1 | 11 | AURORA PEGASUS TT 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 3 | 4.3 | DH |
| 3 | 6 | WINNING METHOD B1/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 9 | 5.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | BABY B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 11 | 36.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | HINCHINLOVE B-/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 2 | 7.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | LONE EAGLE XB Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 5 | 3.7 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | ROMAN IMPERO B H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 6 | 57.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | HARRIER JET V/TT S De Sousa · P O'Sullivan | S De Sousa | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 29.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 8 | 28.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | INTERSTELLAR H1/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 112.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | HAPPY TIME TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 10 | 7.5 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LONE EAGLE | 17.7% | 5.64 | 6 |
| 2 | 11 | AURORA PEGASUS | 16.2% | 6.18 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | WINNING METHOD | 11.9% | 8.43 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | HINCHINLOVE | 10.3% | 9.73 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | SOLOMON'S BAY | 9.1% | 11.04 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | BABY | 8.4% | 11.94 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | SHINING ACE | 7.9% | 12.58 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY TIME | 7.9% | 12.62 | 12 |
| 9 | 8 | HARRIER JET | 4.1% | 24.11 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | ROMAN IMPERO | 3.0% | 33.29 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL | 2.9% | 34.56 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | INTERSTELLAR | 0.6% | 160.07 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 77.5
11 21.5
PLACE
5 42
6 21
11 16
QUINELLA
5,11 415.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 154
5,11 127.5
6,11 55.5
TIERCE
5,11,6 2,924
11,5,6 1,738
TRIO
5,6,11 751
FIRST 4
5,6,7,11 2,444
QUARTET
5,11,6,7 38,986
11,5,6,7 20,279
3 PICK 1
A3 14.5
A2 —
A1 10.1
All pools (3 more)
8TH DOUBLE
1/5 464.5
1/11 100.5
SIX UP
10,12/5,10/2,12/9,11/1,10/5,11 100,409
12/5/12/11/1/5 1,216,448
12/5/12/11/1/11 1,216,448
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
11/1/5 10,917
11/1/11 3,862