Happy Valley · 2019-11-20
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 5-1/2, with ZERO HEDGE second and WINNING TOGETHER third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AMAZING STAR 1.08.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 7 | 2.3 | 5-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE PC/XB K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 6.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | WINNING TOGETHER B C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 11 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | ORIENTAL ELITE N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | PLIKCLONE H1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 73.0 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | MENAGGIO H1 A Sanna · P F Yiu | A Sanna | P F Yiu | 6 | 39.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | THE ABRAXAS S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 8 | 6.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 9 | 23.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | FLYING MONKEY TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 12 | 84.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 4 | 5.8 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT1 H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 1 | 96.0 | 17-3/4 |
| — | 9 | VOYAGE KING B/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 2 | 7.8 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE | 19.3% | 5.18 | 10 |
| 2 | 3 | AMAZING STAR | 19.0% | 5.27 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE | 17.4% | 5.74 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | THE ABRAXAS | 13.2% | 7.55 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | ORIENTAL ELITE | 12.4% | 8.04 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 4.9% | 20.48 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | PLIKCLONE | 4.4% | 22.90 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | FLYING MONKEY | 3.6% | 27.86 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE | 2.3% | 43.05 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | WINNING TOGETHER | 1.8% | 54.82 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | MENAGGIO | 1.7% | 60.14 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 23.5
PLACE
3 16
4 19.5
11 90
QUINELLA
3,4 87
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 38.5
3,11 206.5
4,11 424.5
TIERCE
3,4,11 3,569
TRIO
3,4,11 1,329
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 2,180
QUARTET
3,4,11,2 26,212
2ND DOUBLE
6/3 131.5
6/4 68
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 17.5
A3 —
A2 —