Happy Valley · 2019-11-20
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly 1.39.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 1 | 28.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS MATE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 8.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 7 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY CP/H K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | DOR DOR Closed strongly H U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 5 | 5.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 8 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT Led early Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 2 | 3.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | THOU SHALL SING TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 6 | 28.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | DARE TO DREAM B1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 85.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 10 | 24.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INDIGENOUS STAR, ridden by H W Lai and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with RIGHTEOUS MATE second and CHARITY WINGS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite STARLIT KNIGHT finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 25.8% | 3.88 | 8 |
| 2 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS | 18.2% | 5.50 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS MATE | 11.4% | 8.81 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | DOR DOR | 10.6% | 9.46 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS | 7.4% | 13.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY | 7.3% | 13.69 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | DARE TO DREAM | 4.2% | 23.62 | 11 |
| 8 | 0 | PLAY WISE | 4.2% | 23.96 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | THOU SHALL SING | 3.4% | 29.60 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 3.0% | 33.30 | 1 |
| 11 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 2.6% | 37.86 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 2.0% | 49.41 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 286
PLACE
5 33.5
10 24.5
12 65
QUINELLA
10,12 1,472.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 136.5
5,12 441.5
10,12 335.5
TIERCE
12,10,5 40,306
TRIO
5,10,12 4,956
FIRST 4
4,5,10,12 3,367
QUARTET
12,10,5,4 150,592
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 36
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/10 48
3/12 924.5