Sha Tin · 2019-12-01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SKY DARCI, ridden by U Rispoli and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with RICH AND LUCKY second and GALA NIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite LEAP OF FAITH finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.36

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	10	SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT1 1.22.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) U Rispoli · C Fownes	U Rispoli	C Fownes	9	128 lb	4.2	N
2	3	RICH AND LUCKY H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	7	127 lb	45.0	N
3	13	GALA NIGHT XB- N Callan · J Moore	N Callan	J Moore	4	122 lb	59.0	1-1/2
4	8	LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	10	128 lb	3.2	1-3/4
5	7	KING DRAGON Closed strongly A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	2	128 lb	11.0	1-3/4
6	5	INVALUABLE Closed strongly TT1 C Y Ho · R Gibson	C Y Ho	R Gibson	3	128 lb	13.0	2
7	1	KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	11	133 lb	3.7	2-1/4
8	12	MOMENTUM HAPPY Closed strongly CP K C Leung · T P Yung	K C Leung	T P Yung	12	127 lb	11.0	3
9	9	LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly R Bayliss · D J Hall	R Bayliss	D J Hall	8	128 lb	101.0	3
10	14	U W BROTHER Closed strongly P- L Hewitson · Y S Tsui	L Hewitson	Y S Tsui	13	120 lb	55.0	4-1/2
11	6	KELMIMI WINS TT M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	14	126 lb	169.0	5-1/2
12	4	APOLAR WARRIOR B1 S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	1	128 lb	35.0	6
13	11	UNITED WE STAND Led early B Shinn · C S Shum	B Shinn	C S Shum	5	128 lb	25.0	9-1/4
14	2	CHATER KING H1 A Sanna · D J Whyte	A Sanna	D J Whyte	6	130 lb	63.0	27-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick LEAP OF FAITH (28.3%) finished 4th — the winner SKY DARCI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	LEAP OF FAITH	28.3%	3.54	4	3.2
2	10	SKY DARCI	17.3%	5.77	1	4.2
3	11	UNITED WE STAND	9.3%	10.74	13	25.0
4	1	KA YING EXCELLENT	8.5%	11.76	7	3.7
5	12	MOMENTUM HAPPY	7.2%	13.84	8	11.0
6	7	KING DRAGON	5.7%	17.52	5	11.0
7	5	INVALUABLE	5.2%	19.16	6	13.0
8	3	RICH AND LUCKY	4.8%	20.79	2	45.0
9	13	GALA NIGHT	3.4%	29.82	3	59.0
10	4	APOLAR WARRIOR	3.1%	32.34	12	35.0
11	9	LUCKY MISSILE	2.5%	39.55	9	101.0
12	14	U W BROTHER	2.4%	42.49	10	55.0
13	2	CHATER KING	1.2%	83.90	14	63.0
14	6	KELMIMI WINS	1.1%	89.28	11	169.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 42.5

PLACE

3 94.5

10 15.5

13 124

QUINELLA

3,10 1,103.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 278

3,13 1,703.5

10,13 320

TIERCE

10,3,13 53,359

TRIO

3,10,13 10,685

FIRST 4

3,8,10,13 8,188

QUARTET

10,3,13,8 370,341

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99