Sha Tin · 2019-12-01
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. STRIKING MR C, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 5-3/4, with RUN MOOCHI second and SUREWIN third. The 4.4 favourite EXPONENTS finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | STRIKING MR C B/TT 1.08.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | RUN MOOCHI V S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 1 | 5.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | SUREWIN B N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 5 | 5.9 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | EXPONENTS V J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 4.4 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | STARLOT B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | ISLAND WINNER CP/XB/TT A Sanna · P F Yiu | A Sanna | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | CHARITYDREAM CP/TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 4 | 117.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT LORD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 42.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | BOND ELEGANCE P K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 10 | 11.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | CORRE RAPIDO B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 6 | 10.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | JIMSON THE DRAGON XB/B1/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 9 | 25.0 | 14 |
| 12 | 10 | KING MORTAR V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 12 | 17.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | EXPONENTS | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | RUN MOOCHI | 13.3% | 7.54 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | ISLAND WINNER | 11.4% | 8.79 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | KING MORTAR | 11.2% | 8.89 | 12 |
| 5 | 4 | STARLOT | 9.0% | 11.06 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | CORRE RAPIDO | 8.5% | 11.82 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | BOND ELEGANCE | 6.0% | 16.56 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | SUREWIN | 5.7% | 17.53 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 5.4% | 18.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 3.2% | 31.27 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | STRIKING MR C | 2.1% | 46.57 | 1 |
| 12 | 8 | CHARITYDREAM | 2.1% | 47.67 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 144
PLACE
7 21
11 39
12 18.5
QUINELLA
11,12 361.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 129.5
7,12 58
11,12 118
TIERCE
11,12,7 5,676
TRIO
7,11,12 652
FIRST 4
6,7,11,12 681
QUARTET
11,12,7,6 22,386
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,12/7,11,12 19,528
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 27.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/11 266.5
1/12 10.5