Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2019-12-01

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. DUKE WAI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/2, with STRONGER second and MASSIVE POCKET third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 DUKE WAI B 0.56.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 11 2.5 1-1/2
2 2 STRONGER CP1 B Shinn · J Moore 1 22.0 1-1/2
3 7 MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 5.7 2-1/4
4 14 HEALTHY LUCK B M Chadwick · K L Man 7 53.0 3-3/4
5 8 ALLIED AGILITY H N Callan · P F Yiu 3 9.7 3-3/4
6 11 HONG KONG WIN B R Bayliss · J Size 13 14.0 4
7 9 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 5 5.1 5
8 13 COMFORT LIFE XB/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 6 58.0 5-1/2
9 12 GLENEALY GENERALS B1 A Badel · C H Yip 10 12.0 5-1/2
10 4 SUPER JUNIOR V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 9 15.0 7-1/2
11 1 SEVENTH SEA SR1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 2 71.0 7-3/4
12 5 BALTIC SUCCESS H W Lai · C S Shum 4 73.0 8-1/4
13 3 WHISKEY NEAT A Sanna · C Fownes 14 40.0 9-1/2
14 6 FLYING SWORD H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 252.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DUKE WAI2. STRONGER+1.5L3. MASSIVE POCKET+2.25L4. HEALTHY LUCK+3.75L5. ALLIED AGILITY+3.75L6. HONG KONG WIN+4L7. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+5L8. COMFORT LIFE+5.5L9. GLENEALY GENERALS+5.5L10. SUPER JUNIOR+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA GUNGHO (26.8%) finished 7th — the winner DUKE WAI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 26.8% 3.73 7
2 10 DUKE WAI 24.9% 4.02 1
3 7 MASSIVE POCKET 7.9% 12.63 3
4 8 ALLIED AGILITY 6.5% 15.43 5
5 4 SUPER JUNIOR 6.4% 15.61 10
6 11 HONG KONG WIN 5.6% 17.77 6
7 2 STRONGER 4.7% 21.42 2
8 13 COMFORT LIFE 4.2% 24.05 8
9 14 HEALTHY LUCK 3.5% 28.61 4
10 12 GLENEALY GENERALS 2.7% 37.35 9
11 3 WHISKEY NEAT 2.5% 40.69 13
12 5 BALTIC SUCCESS 2.1% 47.78 12
13 1 SEVENTH SEA 1.4% 72.75 11
14 6 FLYING SWORD 1.0% 103.96 14
CALIFORNIA GUNGHODUKE WAI — wonMASSIVE POCKETALLIED AGILITYSUPER JUNIORHONG KONG WINSTRONGERCOMFORT LIFEHEALTHY LUCKGLENEALY GENERALSWHISKEY NEATBALTIC SUCCESSSEVENTH SEAFLYING SWORD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 25.5

PLACE

2 60.5

7 19.5

10 14

QUINELLA

2,10 437.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 220.5

2,10 144

7,10 33.5

TIERCE

10,2,7 3,209

TRIO

2,7,10 528

FIRST 4

2,7,10,14 4,586

QUARTET

10,2,7,14 78,477

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,10/2,7,10 12,676

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A3

A2

6TH DOUBLE

5/2 83.5

5/10 59