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Sha Tin · 2019-12-01

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ENFOLDING, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with HOLY HEART second and LAST KINGDOM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 ENFOLDING Closed strongly V 1.38.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · C Fownes 3 4.1 HD
2 6 HOLY HEART Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 5.6 HD
3 9 LAST KINGDOM Closed strongly P/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte 5 22.0 1/2
4 2 ENDEARING Closed strongly B-/PC2/TT N Callan · J Moore 9 21.0 3/4
4 14 GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B J Moreira · D E Ferraris 13 9.7 3/4
6 7 MONGOLIAN LEGEND H W Lai · Y S Tsui 2 16.0 1-1/4
7 1 COBY OPPA CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 7 5.8 2
8 4 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 6 15.0 2
9 8 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 10 43.0 3
10 3 BEAUTY ICON B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 17.0 4
11 11 DEAL MAKER Led early H A Badel · K H Ting 14 5.6 4
12 5 HANG'S DECISION B/H K C Leung · W Y So 1 36.0 5
13 10 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P2/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 12 141.0 6-1/2
14 12 GRAN MASTER H/V T H So · L Ho 4 109.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENFOLDING2. HOLY HEART+0.2L3. LAST KINGDOM+0.5L4. ENDEARING+0.75L4. GENERAL DINO+0.75L6. MONGOLIAN LEGEND+1.25L7. COBY OPPA+2L8. VOLPINO+2L9. OWNERS' STAR+3L10. BEAUTY ICON+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ENFOLDING (18.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 ENFOLDING 18.0% 5.55 1
2 11 DEAL MAKER 16.5% 6.04 11
3 1 COBY OPPA 11.9% 8.41 7
4 14 GENERAL DINO 8.9% 11.25 4
5 4 VOLPINO 8.1% 12.42 8
6 8 OWNERS' STAR 7.3% 13.68 9
7 3 BEAUTY ICON 5.9% 16.94 10
8 2 ENDEARING 5.5% 18.04 4
9 7 MONGOLIAN LEGEND 5.3% 18.80 6
10 6 HOLY HEART 3.9% 25.59 2
11 9 LAST KINGDOM 2.9% 34.69 3
12 12 GRAN MASTER 2.4% 41.35 14
13 5 HANG'S DECISION 1.8% 56.28 12
14 10 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.5% 65.39 13
ENFOLDING — wonDEAL MAKERCOBY OPPAGENERAL DINOVOLPINOOWNERS' STARBEAUTY ICONENDEARINGMONGOLIAN LEGENDHOLY HEARTLAST KINGDOMGRAN MASTERHANG'S DECISIONCHUNG WAH SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 41

PLACE

6 23.5

9 49

13 16.5

QUINELLA

6,13 153

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 253.5

6,13 58

9,13 169.5

TIERCE

13,6,9 4,089

TRIO

6,9,13 793

FIRST 4

2,6,9,13 3,051

6,9,13,14 910

QUARTET

13,6,9,2 43,189

13,6,9,14 16,331

3 PICK 1

A2 17

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/6 19.5

2/13 176.5