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Sha Tin · 2019-12-01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with THE ABRAXAS second and DESTINE JEWELLERY third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 1 1.7 1-1/4
2 12 THE ABRAXAS B1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 16.0 1-1/4
3 7 DESTINE JEWELLERY B1 J Moreira · J Size 2 10.0 2-3/4
4 2 BETTER CHOICE A Sanna · D J Whyte 5 9.3 3-1/4
5 5 CALIFORNIA RAD TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 25.0 3-1/2
6 8 HERO STAR C Y Ho · K L Man 10 9.6 4-1/4
7 11 MIGHTY VALOR L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 16.0 5
8 10 MERIDIAN TALENT M Chadwick · R Gibson 3 20.0 5-3/4
9 4 BRILLIANT PROFIT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 6 91.0 7-3/4
10 6 COPARTNER ERA B1 R Bayliss · W Y So 7 234.0 8-1/4
11 3 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT S De Sousa · T P Yung 8 10.0 8-1/4
12 9 LEGENDARY HERO TT T H So · P O'Sullivan 12 286.0 11-3/4
0 ON EXCEL STAR A Badel · C H Yip
0 WINNER APPROACH · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE2. THE ABRAXAS+1.25L3. DESTINE JEWELLERY+2.75L4. BETTER CHOICE+3.25L5. CALIFORNIA RAD+3.5L6. HERO STAR+4.25L7. MIGHTY VALOR+5L8. MERIDIAN TALENT+5.75L9. BRILLIANT PROFIT+7.75L10. COPARTNER ERA+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DESTINE JEWELLERY (29.0%) finished 3rd — the winner QUADRUPLE DOUBLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 DESTINE JEWELLERY 29.0% 3.45 3
2 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 19.7% 5.07 1
3 5 CALIFORNIA RAD 12.2% 8.21 5
4 3 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR 10.3% 9.68 11
5 12 THE ABRAXAS 8.8% 11.34 2
6 8 HERO STAR 4.3% 23.37 6
7 10 MERIDIAN TALENT 4.1% 24.39 8
8 4 BRILLIANT PROFIT 3.8% 26.53 9
9 2 BETTER CHOICE 3.6% 27.44 4
10 6 COPARTNER ERA 2.2% 45.22 10
11 9 LEGENDARY HERO 1.2% 81.14 12
12 11 MIGHTY VALOR 0.8% 128.90 7
DESTINE JEWELLERYQUADRUPLE DOUBLE — wonCALIFORNIA RADMAJESTIC CONQUERORTHE ABRAXASHERO STARMERIDIAN TALENTBRILLIANT PROFITBETTER CHOICECOPARTNER ERALEGENDARY HEROMIGHTY VALOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 17.5

PLACE

1 12

7 27.5

12 31.5

QUINELLA

1,12 99.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 42.5

1,12 46.5

7,12 169

TIERCE

1,12,7 1,092

TRIO

1,7,12 300

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 464

QUARTET

1,12,7,2 5,499

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 294.5

6/12 303.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A2

A3