Sha Tin · 2019-12-01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with THE ABRAXAS second and DESTINE JEWELLERY third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 1.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS B1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | BETTER CHOICE A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 5 | 9.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | CALIFORNIA RAD TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | HERO STAR C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 10 | 9.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | MIGHTY VALOR L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 9 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | MERIDIAN TALENT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 3 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | BRILLIANT PROFIT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 6 | 91.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | COPARTNER ERA B1 R Bayliss · W Y So | R Bayliss | W Y So | 7 | 234.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT S De Sousa · T P Yung | S De Sousa | T P Yung | 8 | 10.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | LEGENDARY HERO TT T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 286.0 | 11-3/4 |
| — | 0 | ON EXCEL STAR A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | WINNER APPROACH · C W Chang | — | C W Chang | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 29.0% | 3.45 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 19.7% | 5.07 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 12.2% | 8.21 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR | 10.3% | 9.68 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS | 8.8% | 11.34 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | HERO STAR | 4.3% | 23.37 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | MERIDIAN TALENT | 4.1% | 24.39 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | BRILLIANT PROFIT | 3.8% | 26.53 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | BETTER CHOICE | 3.6% | 27.44 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | COPARTNER ERA | 2.2% | 45.22 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | LEGENDARY HERO | 1.2% | 81.14 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | MIGHTY VALOR | 0.8% | 128.90 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 17.5
PLACE
1 12
7 27.5
12 31.5
QUINELLA
1,12 99.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 42.5
1,12 46.5
7,12 169
TIERCE
1,12,7 1,092
TRIO
1,7,12 300
FIRST 4
1,2,7,12 464
QUARTET
1,12,7,2 5,499
2ND DOUBLE
6/1 294.5
6/12 303.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 17.5
A2 —
A3 —