沙田 · 2019-12-01
第 7場
2019-12-01沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的DUKE WAI勝出，贏出1-1/2。STRONGER獲得亞軍；MASSIVE POCKET獲得季軍。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DUKE WAI B 0.56.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 2.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | STRONGER CP1 B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 1 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 5.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 14 | HEALTHY LUCK B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 53.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ALLIED AGILITY H N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 9.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | HONG KONG WIN B R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 13 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.1 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | COMFORT LIFE XB/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 58.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | GLENEALY GENERALS B1 A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 10 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPER JUNIOR V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | SEVENTH SEA SR1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 71.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | BALTIC SUCCESS H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 4 | 73.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 14 | 40.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | FLYING SWORD H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 12 | 252.0 | 10-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 26.8% | 3.73 | 7 |
| 2 | 10 | DUKE WAI | 24.9% | 4.02 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | MASSIVE POCKET | 7.9% | 12.63 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | ALLIED AGILITY | 6.5% | 15.43 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPER JUNIOR | 6.4% | 15.61 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | HONG KONG WIN | 5.6% | 17.77 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | STRONGER | 4.7% | 21.42 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | COMFORT LIFE | 4.2% | 24.05 | 8 |
| 9 | 14 | HEALTHY LUCK | 3.5% | 28.61 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | GLENEALY GENERALS | 2.7% | 37.35 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT | 2.5% | 40.69 | 13 |
| 12 | 5 | BALTIC SUCCESS | 2.1% | 47.78 | 12 |
| 13 | 1 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.4% | 72.75 | 11 |
| 14 | 6 | FLYING SWORD | 1.0% | 103.96 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 25.5
PLACE
2 60.5
7 19.5
10 14
QUINELLA
2,10 437.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 220.5
2,10 144
7,10 33.5
TIERCE
10,2,7 3,209
TRIO
2,7,10 528
FIRST 4
2,7,10,14 4,586
QUARTET
10,2,7,14 78,477
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,10/2,7,10 12,676
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 17
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
5/2 83.5
5/10 59