沙田 · 2019-12-01
第 10場
2019-12-01沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的FOLLOW ME勝出，贏出N。ULTIMATE GLORY獲得亞軍；FALCON TURBO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門EZRA跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FOLLOW ME 後段發力 TT 1.21.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 5.4 | N |
| 2 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY 後段發力 V H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 7 | 60.0 | N |
| 3 | 13 | FALCON TURBO B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 10 | 29.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | HAPPY FORCE 早段領放 B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 H-/B/TT R Bayliss · K H Ting | R Bayliss | K H Ting | 2 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | GREAT TREASURE 後段發力 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | EZRA B/XB S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 6 | 2.7 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | MONEY BACK 後段發力 B1 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 109.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | EVERYONE'S JOY XB/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 3 | 4.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | TANG FLEMING B/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 14 | 294.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | HONEST WAY U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 9 | 41.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 1 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 13 | 27.0 | 11 |
| 14 | 2 | FEARLESS FIRE XB M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 12 | 86.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FOLLOW ME | 21.4% | 4.67 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | EZRA | 14.1% | 7.08 | 8 |
| 3 | 13 | FALCON TURBO | 12.8% | 7.84 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 10.1% | 9.91 | 13 |
| 5 | 8 | EVERYONE'S JOY | 9.9% | 10.14 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | FEARLESS FIRE | 5.8% | 17.38 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | GREAT TREASURE | 5.0% | 20.19 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | MONEY BACK | 4.4% | 22.63 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | HAPPY FORCE | 4.0% | 24.74 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 3.0% | 33.85 | 2 |
| 11 | 6 | HONEST WAY | 2.8% | 35.32 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | HELLO BEAUTY | 2.8% | 35.46 | 4 |
| 13 | 4 | ASSIMILATE | 2.6% | 38.39 | 6 |
| 14 | 14 | TANG FLEMING | 1.4% | 73.86 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 54.5
PLACE
5 21
10 121
13 32
QUINELLA
5,10 1,489.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 467
5,13 116
10,13 704.5
TIERCE
5,10,13 17,097
TRIO
5,10,13 2,236
FIRST 4
3,5,10,13 14,590
QUARTET
5,10,13,3 307,607
3 PICK 1
A2 30.5
A3 —
A1 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,9,13/5,10,13 312,340
9TH DOUBLE
13/5 205.5
13/10 472.5
SIX UP
3,12/5,10/2,10/2,7/6,13/5,10 6,736
12/5/10/2/13/5 50,854
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
2/13/5 1,418
2/13/10 2,281