沙田 · 2019-12-01
第 5場
2019-12-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由S De Sousa策騎、C W Chang訓練的MISTER MONTE勝出，贏出2。DRAGON COMMANDER獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA LEGEND獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.2倍大熱門SUPER RED DRAGON跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MISTER MONTE 一路領先 CP-/B2 1.48.17 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 14 | 7.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 11 | 35.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 後段發力 B/H H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 10 | 6.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | SUPER RED DRAGON 後段發力 H/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 8 | 3.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | WILLIE WAY 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | CURLING LUXURY H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 9 | 9.6 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 3 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | DYNASTA B B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 6 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | BRING IT ON TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 68.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | SPEEDY WALLY TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 29.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 11 | HAY RUN H/TT M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 4 | 18.0 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 1 | RULETHEROOST A Sanna · F C Lor | A Sanna | F C Lor | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 30.5% | 3.28 | 5 |
| 2 | 9 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 16.4% | 6.08 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | KING'S MAN | 9.3% | 10.75 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 8.5% | 11.80 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 6.1% | 16.38 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | SPEEDY WALLY | 5.7% | 17.62 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | MISTER MONTE | 5.2% | 19.18 | 1 |
| 8 | 11 | HAY RUN | 4.8% | 21.05 | 13 |
| 9 | 5 | DYNASTA | 4.3% | 23.22 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | CURLING LUXURY | 3.0% | 32.87 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 2.9% | 35.07 | 2 |
| 12 | 2 | WILLIE WAY | 2.2% | 45.49 | 6 |
| 13 | 13 | BRING IT ON | 1.1% | 87.61 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 78.5
PLACE
3 84
6 17.5
12 26.5
QUINELLA
3,12 1,800.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 269
3,12 506
6,12 79
TIERCE
12,3,6 21,382
TRIO
3,6,12 2,079
FIRST 4
3,6,9,12 3,563
QUARTET
12,3,6,9 111,522
3 PICK 1
A3 24.5
A2 —
A1 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
11/3 688.5
11/12 1,410