沙田 · 2019-12-01
第 6場
2019-12-01沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、K W Lui訓練的FORTUNE HAPPINESS勝出，贏出N。STAR SUPERIOR獲得亞軍；SUPREME PATROL獲得季軍。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B 1.09.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 1 | 2.1 | N |
| 2 | 10 | STAR SUPERIOR H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 15.0 | N |
| 3 | 6 | SUPREME PATROL B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 13.0 | N |
| 4 | 11 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 39.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | AURORA STAR A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 133.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | ZERO HEDGE PC/XB B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 12 | 9.1 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 11 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | BREEZE OF SPRING H T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 4 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SHIMMER AND SHINE V1/TT- U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 7 | 20.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | MY POWER H/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 10 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | STRATHCLYDE B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 5 | 7.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | APOLLOS BOW B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 51.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 0 | GRACIOUS RYDER C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 35.9% | 2.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 14.5% | 6.90 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | ZERO HEDGE | 7.6% | 13.23 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | AURORA STAR | 6.4% | 15.67 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | STRATHCLYDE | 6.1% | 16.27 | 11 |
| 6 | 12 | MY POWER | 6.0% | 16.79 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR | 5.9% | 16.94 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.1% | 19.70 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPREME PATROL | 4.6% | 21.96 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | SHIMMER AND SHINE | 4.3% | 23.25 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | APOLLOS BOW | 2.0% | 51.27 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 1.8% | 56.27 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 21
PLACE
5 13
6 34.5
10 35.5
QUINELLA
5,10 149.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 54
5,10 61.5
6,10 190.5
TIERCE
5,10,6 1,166
TRIO
5,6,10 365
FIRST 4
5,6,10,11 2,656
QUARTET
5,10,6,11 24,335
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18
A2 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
5TH DOUBLE
12/5 312.5
12/10 194
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
7,11,12/3,6,12/Any Combination 75,353