Sha Tin · 2019-12-21

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-21 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LIVERBIRD STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 3/4, with MONEY WINNER second and REGENCY GEM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite REGENCY GEM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.36.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	LIVERBIRD STAR Closed strongly B 1.36.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan	K C Leung	P O'Sullivan	3	125 lb	4.5	3/4
2	7	MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B N Callan · Y S Tsui	N Callan	Y S Tsui	1	122 lb	7.6	3/4
3	3	REGENCY GEM Closed strongly PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	4	130 lb	2.9	1
4	8	SOCCER MASTER Closed strongly B/TT1 J Moreira · W Y So	J Moreira	W Y So	5	122 lb	4.8	1-1/4
5	1	WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	7	131 lb	4.7	2-1/4
6	9	MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR XB M Chadwick · C Fownes	M Chadwick	C Fownes	2	121 lb	14.0	5-3/4
7	6	TIGERLAD Led early B L Hewitson · R Gibson	L Hewitson	R Gibson	8	123 lb	63.0	9
8	2	WINNING WARRIOR H H W Lai · K L Man	H W Lai	K L Man	9	132 lb	94.0	10-3/4
9	4	CHACHAUP B-/TT T H So · L Ho	T H So	L Ho	6	127 lb	107.0	28-3/4
—	10	MY DEAR K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	—	116 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick SOCCER MASTER (26.6%) finished 4th — the winner LIVERBIRD STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	SOCCER MASTER	26.6%	3.76	4	4.8
2	3	REGENCY GEM	21.6%	4.63	3	2.9
3	5	LIVERBIRD STAR	19.9%	5.01	1	4.5
4	9	MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR	14.2%	7.04	6	14.0
5	7	MONEY WINNER	7.5%	13.25	2	7.6
6	1	WINWIN THIRTYTHREE	6.7%	14.96	5	4.7
7	2	WINNING WARRIOR	1.6%	60.74	8	94.0
8	4	CHACHAUP	1.0%	95.62	9	107.0
9	6	TIGERLAD	0.7%	140.94	7	63.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 45

PLACE

3 12

5 17

7 21.5

QUINELLA

5,7 192.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 24.5

3,7 45

5,7 53

TIERCE

5,7,3 898

TRIO

3,5,7 118

FIRST 4

3,5,7,8 95

QUARTET

5,7,3,8 2,871

3 PICK 1

A2 18

A1 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99