Sha Tin · 2019-12-21
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLE ELEGANT, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with BEAUTY LOYAL second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SIMPLE ELEGANT Wire to wire V 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 2 | 32.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 13 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | UNICORNBABY B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 5 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY Closed strongly PC-/CP2/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 4 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | GUY DRAGON Closed strongly XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 6 | 8.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | MORE THAN A HORSE B1/SR1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | FENRIR Closed strongly H/SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 8 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | MONEY BACK B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 114.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 7 | 193.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | E MASTER V/XB H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 1 | 115.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG BANG BONG TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 12 | 54.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SIMPLE ELEGANT | 18.8% | 5.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | FOLLOW ME | 13.6% | 7.36 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 10.9% | 9.15 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | GUY DRAGON | 10.1% | 9.86 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 7.9% | 12.63 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | UNICORNBABY | 7.4% | 13.59 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY | 6.5% | 15.47 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 5.7% | 17.62 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | BIG BANG BONG | 4.8% | 20.97 | 14 |
| 10 | 13 | E MASTER | 3.9% | 25.77 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | FENRIR | 3.8% | 26.62 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.3% | 30.67 | 3 |
| 13 | 10 | MONEY BACK | 2.7% | 36.69 | 11 |
| 14 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN | 0.8% | 132.97 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 30
PLACE
8 15.5
11 18
14 62
QUINELLA
8,11 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 35
8,14 140.5
11,14 182
TIERCE
8,11,14 1,721
TRIO
8,11,14 503
FIRST 4
2,8,11,14 1,481
QUARTET
8,11,14,2 19,251
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 18
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,10,11/8,11,14 12,278
9TH DOUBLE
10/8 413
10/11 172.5
SIX UP
1,7/3,5/1,3/4,7/10,11/8,11 2,537
7/5/3/4/10/8 2,497,036
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
4/10/8 1,419
4/10/11 697