沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 10場
2019-12-21沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由G van Niekerk策騎、P F Yiu訓練的SIMPLE ELEGANT勝出，贏出1-1/4。BEAUTY LOYAL獲得亞軍；GREAT TREASURE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SIMPLE ELEGANT 一路領先 V 1.22.44 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE 後段發力 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 2 | 32.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | FOLLOW ME 後段發力 TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 14 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | ULTIMATE GLORY 後段發力 V Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 13 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | UNICORNBABY B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 5 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY 後段發力 PC-/CP2/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 4 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | GUY DRAGON 後段發力 XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 6 | 8.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | MORE THAN A HORSE B1/SR1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | FENRIR 後段發力 H/SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 8 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | MONEY BACK B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 114.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 7 | 193.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | E MASTER V/XB H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 1 | 115.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG BANG BONG TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 12 | 54.0 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SIMPLE ELEGANT | 18.8% | 5.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | FOLLOW ME | 13.6% | 7.36 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 10.9% | 9.15 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | GUY DRAGON | 10.1% | 9.86 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 7.9% | 12.63 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | UNICORNBABY | 7.4% | 13.59 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY | 6.5% | 15.47 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 5.7% | 17.62 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | BIG BANG BONG | 4.8% | 20.97 | 14 |
| 10 | 13 | E MASTER | 3.9% | 25.77 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | FENRIR | 3.8% | 26.62 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.3% | 30.67 | 3 |
| 13 | 10 | MONEY BACK | 2.7% | 36.69 | 11 |
| 14 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN | 0.8% | 132.97 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 30
PLACE
8 15.5
11 18
14 62
QUINELLA
8,11 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 35
8,14 140.5
11,14 182
TIERCE
8,11,14 1,721
TRIO
8,11,14 503
FIRST 4
2,8,11,14 1,481
QUARTET
8,11,14,2 19,251
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 18
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,10,11/8,11,14 12,278
9TH DOUBLE
10/8 413
10/11 172.5
SIX UP
1,7/3,5/1,3/4,7/10,11/8,11 2,537
7/5/3/4/10/8 2,497,036
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
4/10/8 1,419
4/10/11 697