沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 5場
2019-12-21沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Schofield策騎、D J Whyte訓練的XPONENTIAL勝出，贏出HD。FANTASY獲得亞軍；THE SHOW獲得季軍。2.1倍大熱門FANTASY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | XPONENTIAL XB1 1.10.08 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 14 | 48.0 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | FANTASY TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 2 | 2.1 | HD |
| 3 | 14 | THE SHOW B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 10 | 110.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | COLORADO HIGH Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 3 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 8 | 109.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | POWER KING H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 5.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | UNDEFEATED H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 4 | 69.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | WAR LORD PC1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | BEST FOR YOU B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 5 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS CP-/B1/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 1 | 32.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | BLINK OF A SECOND H/TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 280.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | METHANE A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 6 | 11.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 11 | 147.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | LEGENDARY HERO TT T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 515.0 | 29-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FANTASY | 24.4% | 4.09 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | POWER KING | 19.2% | 5.20 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | COLORADO HIGH | 18.2% | 5.48 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | WAR LORD | 15.6% | 6.40 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | XPONENTIAL | 6.0% | 16.71 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | METHANE | 3.8% | 26.36 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | BEST FOR YOU | 3.6% | 27.42 | 9 |
| 8 | 14 | THE SHOW | 1.7% | 58.90 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR | 1.7% | 59.63 | 13 |
| 10 | 6 | UNDEFEATED | 1.6% | 63.33 | 7 |
| 11 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS | 1.6% | 63.66 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 1.2% | 86.37 | 5 |
| 13 | 10 | BLINK OF A SECOND | 0.8% | 123.48 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | LEGENDARY HERO | 0.5% | 188.87 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 481
PLACE
1 11
7 100
14 192
QUINELLA
1,7 394.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 136.5
1,14 260.5
7,14 2,805.5
TIERCE
7,1,14 70,570
TRIO
1,7,14 8,283
FIRST 4
1,3,7,14 13,870
QUARTET
7,1,14,3 735,761
3 PICK 1
A3 58
A2 —
A1 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
2,9/1 16.5
2,9/7 1,439.5