沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 3場
2019-12-21沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C H Yip訓練的FIRE AND GOLD勝出，贏出2-1/4。WHISTLE UP獲得亞軍；LEISURED FEET獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門KWAI CHUNG ELITE跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FIRE AND GOLD B 1.10.56 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 8 | 3.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | WHISTLE UP T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 6 | 43.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | LEISURED FEET SR/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 9 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE H A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 4 | 3.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | KEEP GOING H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | ART OF RAW TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 68.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | CAPTAIN BOSS B-/XB-/SR1/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 14 | 59.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | FAIRY FLOSS B/H M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 13 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | STRIKING MR C B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 4.7 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | WINNERS BROTHER B N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 12 | 252.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | BOND ELEGANCE P-/B2 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 5 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | SUPERB AGILITY H/V1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 153.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER B R Bayliss · K W Lui | R Bayliss | K W Lui | 1 | 194.0 | 13-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FIRE AND GOLD | 22.6% | 4.42 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 19.2% | 5.21 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | LEISURED FEET | 11.6% | 8.62 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | STRIKING MR C | 11.2% | 8.92 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 7.1% | 14.03 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | BOND ELEGANCE | 6.9% | 14.50 | 12 |
| 7 | 13 | WHISTLE UP | 4.3% | 23.21 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 4.2% | 23.60 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | ART OF RAW | 4.2% | 23.91 | 6 |
| 10 | 14 | KEEP GOING | 2.9% | 34.81 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | FAIRY FLOSS | 1.9% | 51.80 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | SUPERB AGILITY | 1.6% | 62.35 | 13 |
| 13 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER | 1.1% | 87.90 | 14 |
| 14 | 9 | WINNERS BROTHER | 1.1% | 92.58 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 38
PLACE
11 33
12 16.5
13 82
QUINELLA
12,13 642
QUINELLA PLACE
11,12 70
11,13 407
12,13 210
TIERCE
12,13,11 4,807
TRIO
11,12,13 1,254
FIRST 4
5,11,12,13 653
QUARTET
12,13,11,5 14,859
2ND DOUBLE
6/12 95.5
6/13 167.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17