沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 8場
2019-12-21沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的DUKE WAI勝出，贏出1。TAKE WHAT YOU NEED獲得亞軍；HONG KONG WIN獲得季軍。1.7倍大熱門LUCKY MORE跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DUKE WAI B 0.56.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 5 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 53.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | MASSIVE POCKET XB M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 10 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | LUCKY MORE Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 1.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | STAR LUCK K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 1 | 39.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | SMART LEADER B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 13 | 44.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | HAPPY VICTORY M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 14 | 92.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CLASSIC UNICORN TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 7 | 4.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | KASI FARASI H/TT H W Lai · K H Ting | H W Lai | K H Ting | 12 | 171.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | THE WEATHERMAN K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 6 | 66.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | SEVENTH SEA SR L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 242.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 8 | COPARTNER SPIRIT H1/XB1 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 3 | 128.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | SO GLORIOUS H H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 401.0 | 17-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY MORE | 36.7% | 2.72 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | DUKE WAI | 21.1% | 4.74 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | CLASSIC UNICORN | 19.2% | 5.21 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | MASSIVE POCKET | 4.2% | 23.57 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN | 4.0% | 25.07 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | SMART LEADER | 3.4% | 29.61 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 2.8% | 35.44 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | STAR LUCK | 2.8% | 35.51 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | COPARTNER SPIRIT | 2.2% | 46.13 | 13 |
| 10 | 2 | KASI FARASI | 1.1% | 87.53 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | HAPPY VICTORY | 0.9% | 115.53 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | THE WEATHERMAN | 0.7% | 146.82 | 11 |
| 13 | 1 | SEVENTH SEA | 0.5% | 194.52 | 12 |
| 14 | 11 | SO GLORIOUS | 0.4% | 258.96 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 57.5
PLACE
4 15
7 35.5
12 66.5
QUINELLA
4,7 491.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 94.5
4,12 197
7,12 519
TIERCE
4,7,12 13,492
TRIO
4,7,12 3,146
FIRST 4
4,7,9,12 4,032
QUARTET
4,7,12,9 57,482
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 21.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
3/4 57
3/7 54.5