沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 7場
2019-12-21沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、J Moore訓練的COMPUTER PATCH勝出，贏出SH。BEAUTY APPLAUSE獲得亞軍；GLENEALY GENERALS獲得季軍。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COMPUTER PATCH XB 1.09.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 1.5 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 5.2 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | GLENEALY GENERALS B- K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 4 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | E STAR H M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | COOL TEAM CP-/B1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 36.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | CHAMPION PRIDE TT1 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 74.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | ISLAND SHINE TT G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | MAGIC SUPREME XB- R Bayliss · J Moore | R Bayliss | J Moore | 9 | 78.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | FORZA ANGEL B2 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 1 | 65.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | THE DRIVE TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 67.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | INTERSTELLAR H/TT H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 14 | 467.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 8 | 72.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 5 | EVEN KEEL H H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 272.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 4 | WHISKEY NEAT M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 13 | 219.0 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COMPUTER PATCH | 30.0% | 3.34 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE | 28.3% | 3.54 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | E STAR | 10.2% | 9.78 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | ISLAND SHINE | 9.1% | 11.00 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | COOL TEAM | 6.2% | 16.03 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | GLENEALY GENERALS | 5.2% | 19.41 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT | 2.4% | 41.37 | 12 |
| 8 | 10 | THE DRIVE | 2.3% | 43.14 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | FORZA ANGEL | 1.8% | 56.49 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | CHAMPION PRIDE | 1.3% | 75.20 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | WHISKEY NEAT | 1.1% | 90.32 | 14 |
| 12 | 7 | MAGIC SUPREME | 1.0% | 100.62 | 8 |
| 13 | 13 | INTERSTELLAR | 0.7% | 147.06 | 11 |
| 14 | 5 | EVEN KEEL | 0.5% | 209.39 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 15
PLACE
1 14.5
3 10.5
12 33
QUINELLA
1,3 35.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 17.5
1,12 68.5
3,12 37.5
TIERCE
3,1,12 322
TRIO
1,3,12 105
FIRST 4
1,3,12,14 121
QUARTET
3,1,12,14 1,035
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,5/1,3,12 25,841
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
5/1 371.5
5/3 944