沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 4場
2019-12-21沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C H Yip訓練的SAM'S LOVE勝出，贏出1/2。LEAP OF FAITH獲得亞軍；SMART ROCKET獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SAM'S LOVE 後段發力 TT2 1.23.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 2.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | LEAP OF FAITH 後段發力 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SMART ROCKET 後段發力 B G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 5 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | MY WINNER 後段發力 B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | GOOD FOR YOU B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP H/P T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 2 | 54.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SPEEDY WALLY 後段發力 TT H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 8 | 102.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | WHO'S HORSE 早段領放 H-/B1/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 127.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | JUNZI H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 1 | 150.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SKYEY SUPREME TT R Bayliss · K W Lui | R Bayliss | K W Lui | 13 | 120.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | BLAZING PARTNERS SR1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 11 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | KA YING BRILLIANCE V/XB M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 14 | 40.0 | 9 |
| — | 2 | KING'S TROOPER K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LEAP OF FAITH | 29.5% | 3.39 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | SAM'S LOVE | 19.0% | 5.25 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 14.5% | 6.88 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 6.2% | 16.04 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | SMART ROCKET | 5.6% | 17.94 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | MY WINNER | 5.4% | 18.44 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | GOOD FOR YOU | 4.5% | 22.29 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | SPEEDY WALLY | 3.7% | 26.91 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 3.4% | 29.53 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 | JUNZI | 2.6% | 38.39 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 2.5% | 39.38 | 13 |
| 12 | 4 | SKYEY SUPREME | 1.8% | 55.83 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | WHO'S HORSE | 1.2% | 82.46 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 28
PLACE
6 28.5
8 16
9 13.5
QUINELLA
8,9 68
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 77.5
6,9 51
8,9 29.5
TIERCE
9,8,6 882
TRIO
6,8,9 178
FIRST 4
1,6,8,9 157
QUARTET
9,8,6,1 3,441
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
11,12,13/6,8>2,9 27,228
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16
3RD DOUBLE
12/2,9 103.5
12/8 16.5