沙田 · 2019-12-21
第 6場
2019-12-21沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由N Callan策騎、P F Yiu訓練的KING'S MAN勝出，贏出SH。GOD OF DRAGON獲得亞軍；BLASTOISE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.2倍大熱門DIONYSUS COLLIN跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V 1.48.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 11 | 37.0 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | GOD OF DRAGON 後段發力 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 10.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | BLASTOISE 早段領放 Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 8 | 4.2 | SH |
| 4 | 4 | LONDON HALL 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 8.4 | N |
| 5 | 9 | C P POWER V/TT G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 4 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | ABOVE B B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 14 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 14 | LITTLE GENERAL B-/H- A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 7 | 6.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FULL POWER XB L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 1 | 86.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY ROCKY 後段發力 B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 13 | 141.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | DIONYSUS COLLIN H/XB J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 9 | 3.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | FAMILY LEADER B/H K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | WILLIE WAY 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 67.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | GARLIC YEAH B M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 12 | 44.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | HAY RUN H/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 170.0 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 21.2% | 4.73 | 10 |
| 2 | 1 | BLASTOISE | 20.4% | 4.91 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | ABOVE | 13.0% | 7.71 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | GOD OF DRAGON | 8.3% | 12.02 | 2 |
| 5 | 14 | LITTLE GENERAL | 5.9% | 16.92 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | C P POWER | 5.8% | 17.37 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | LONDON HALL | 5.3% | 18.80 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | KING'S MAN | 5.1% | 19.75 | 1 |
| 9 | 10 | FAMILY LEADER | 4.8% | 20.81 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | GARLIC YEAH | 3.2% | 31.07 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | HAY RUN | 2.3% | 43.14 | 14 |
| 12 | 2 | WILLIE WAY | 2.1% | 48.41 | 12 |
| 13 | 8 | HAPPY ROCKY | 1.5% | 65.09 | 9 |
| 14 | 7 | FULL POWER | 1.2% | 85.47 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 374.5
PLACE
1 16.5
3 27
5 79.5
QUINELLA
3,5 1,713.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 66.5
1,5 196.5
3,5 373
TIERCE
5,3,1 21,516
TRIO
1,3,5 1,715
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 2,843
QUARTET
5,3,1,4 121,541
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 29.5
A1 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
5TH DOUBLE
7/3 1,062.5
7/5 14,637
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,8>2,9/1,7,14/Any Combination 109,575