Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2019-12-21

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. INNER FLAME, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2, with MOON PEAKS second and WONDER BRAHMA third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 INNER FLAME XB1 1.10.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 4 2.2 2
2 11 MOON PEAKS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 3 16.0 2
3 9 WONDER BRAHMA H1 M F Poon · D J Hall 1 20.0 2
4 12 LUCKY GUY TT N Callan · C H Yip 2 4.5 3-3/4
5 2 KA YING EXCELLENT TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 6.2 3-3/4
6 10 EPTIWINS CP/XB K C Leung · L Ho 10 16.0 4
7 8 TREASURE CHEST H-/B1 R Bayliss · P F Yiu 7 20.0 5-1/4
8 14 FORTUNE PATROL B/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 14 35.0 5-1/4
9 3 COPARTNER ERA B T H So · W Y So 8 340.0 6-1/2
10 7 MERIDIAN TALENT CP1 C Schofield · R Gibson 6 52.0 7-1/2
11 1 STRONG PROMISE TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 11 70.0 8-1/4
12 13 APOLLOS BOW B- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 81.0 8-3/4
13 4 DRAGON BOLT B1 M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 77.0 12
14 5 GLORIOUS BUDDY B-/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 13 13.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INNER FLAME2. MOON PEAKS+2L3. WONDER BRAHMA+2L4. LUCKY GUY+3.75L5. KA YING EXCELLENT+3.75L6. EPTIWINS+4L7. TREASURE CHEST+5.25L8. FORTUNE PATROL+5.25L9. COPARTNER ERA+6.5L10. MERIDIAN TALENT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick KA YING EXCELLENT (18.4%) finished 5th — the winner INNER FLAME was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 KA YING EXCELLENT 18.4% 5.45 5
2 12 LUCKY GUY 18.2% 5.50 4
3 9 WONDER BRAHMA 11.6% 8.60 3
4 11 MOON PEAKS 9.8% 10.21 2
5 6 INNER FLAME 9.2% 10.82 1
6 7 MERIDIAN TALENT 6.6% 15.26 10
7 10 EPTIWINS 5.2% 19.36 6
8 5 GLORIOUS BUDDY 4.7% 21.10 14
9 1 STRONG PROMISE 4.7% 21.37 11
10 14 FORTUNE PATROL 4.1% 24.52 8
11 8 TREASURE CHEST 3.0% 33.06 7
12 4 DRAGON BOLT 1.7% 58.11 13
13 3 COPARTNER ERA 1.4% 69.86 9
14 13 APOLLOS BOW 1.4% 70.94 12
KA YING EXCELLENTLUCKY GUYWONDER BRAHMAMOON PEAKSINNER FLAME — wonMERIDIAN TALENTEPTIWINSGLORIOUS BUDDYSTRONG PROMISEFORTUNE PATROLTREASURE CHESTDRAGON BOLTCOPARTNER ERAAPOLLOS BOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 22.5

PLACE

6 11.5

9 74

11 36

QUINELLA

6,11 214.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 114

6,11 74.5

9,11 488

TIERCE

6,11,9 5,417

TRIO

6,9,11 1,478

FIRST 4

6,9,11,12 903

QUARTET

6,11,9,12 18,397

1ST DOUBLE

5/6 177

5/11 82

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 15