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Happy Valley · 2020-02-12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BULB ELITE, ridden by A Badel and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and STARLIT KNIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BULB ELITE Closed strongly 1.39.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C H Yip 11 17.0 N
2 11 EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 1 1.9 N
3 3 STARLIT KNIGHT Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 5.2 2-1/4
4 2 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · C S Shum 9 16.0 2-1/4
5 4 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 10.0 2-3/4
6 1 SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 7 9.0 2-3/4
7 9 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 2 29.0 2-3/4
8 6 PRO FIT M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 16.0 4-1/2
9 8 VITAL SPRING TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 15.0 4-1/2
10 5 BEAUTY ANGEL Led early TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 6 66.0 5
11 10 DRAGON BOLT Closed strongly B K H Chan · F C Lor 12 126.0 13
12 7 MILLENNIUM DAWN V/SR1/TT H T Mo · L Ho 4 267.0 24

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULB ELITE2. EVERYONE'S ELITE+0.05L3. STARLIT KNIGHT+2.25L4. CHARITY WINGS+2.25L5. VILLA FIONN+2.75L6. SONIC FIGHTER+2.75L7. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING+2.75L8. PRO FIT+4.5L9. VITAL SPRING+4.5L10. BEAUTY ANGEL+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S ELITE (43.4%) finished 2nd — the winner BULB ELITE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 EVERYONE'S ELITE 43.4% 2.31 2
2 3 STARLIT KNIGHT 12.9% 7.78 3
3 8 VITAL SPRING 9.5% 10.56 9
4 4 VILLA FIONN 8.3% 12.07 5
5 1 SONIC FIGHTER 6.9% 14.49 6
6 2 CHARITY WINGS 6.8% 14.61 4
7 6 PRO FIT 3.7% 27.08 8
8 5 BEAUTY ANGEL 2.5% 40.57 10
9 12 BULB ELITE 2.4% 42.53 1
10 9 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 1.6% 60.91 7
11 10 DRAGON BOLT 1.4% 72.28 11
12 7 MILLENNIUM DAWN 0.8% 131.45 12
EVERYONE'S ELITESTARLIT KNIGHTVITAL SPRINGVILLA FIONNSONIC FIGHTERCHARITY WINGSPRO FITBEAUTY ANGELBULB ELITE — wonELECTRIC LIGHTNINGDRAGON BOLTMILLENNIUM DAWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 175

PLACE

3 18.5

11 10.5

12 42

QUINELLA

11,12 134

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 24.5

3,12 122.5

11,12 56.5

TIERCE

12,11,3 1,621

TRIO

3,11,12 218

FIRST 4

2,3,11,12 419

QUARTET

12,11,3,2 11,954

1ST DOUBLE

5/11 23.5

5/12 787.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 28

A2

A1