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Happy Valley · 2020-02-12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BULB ELITE Closed strongly 1.39.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C H Yip 11 17.0 N
2 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 1 1.9 N
3 0 STARLIT KNIGHT Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 5.2 2-1/4
4 0 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · C S Shum 9 16.0 2-1/4
5 0 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 10.0 2-3/4
6 0 SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 7 9.0 2-3/4
7 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 2 29.0 2-3/4
8 0 PRO FIT M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 16.0 4-1/2
9 0 VITAL SPRING TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 15.0 4-1/2
10 0 BEAUTY ANGEL Led early TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 6 66.0 5
11 0 DRAGON BOLT Closed strongly B K H Chan · F C Lor 12 126.0 13
12 0 MILLENNIUM DAWN V/SR1/TT H T Mo · L Ho 4 267.0 24

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BULB ELITE, ridden by A Badel and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and STARLIT KNIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULB ELITE—2. EVERYONE'S ELITE+0.05L3. STARLIT KNIGHT+2.25L4. CHARITY WINGS+2.25L5. VILLA FIONN+2.75L6. SONIC FIGHTER+2.75L7. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING+2.75L8. PRO FIT+4.5L9. VITAL SPRING+4.5L10. BEAUTY ANGEL+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S ELITE (43.4%) finished 2nd — the winner BULB ELITE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE 43.4% 2.31 2
2 0 STARLIT KNIGHT 12.9% 7.78 3
3 0 VITAL SPRING 9.5% 10.56 9
4 0 VILLA FIONN 8.3% 12.07 5
5 0 SONIC FIGHTER 6.9% 14.49 6
6 0 CHARITY WINGS 6.8% 14.61 4
7 0 PRO FIT 3.7% 27.08 8
8 0 BEAUTY ANGEL 2.5% 40.57 10
9 0 BULB ELITE 2.4% 42.53 1
10 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 1.6% 60.91 7
11 0 DRAGON BOLT 1.4% 72.28 11
12 0 MILLENNIUM DAWN 0.8% 131.45 12
EVERYONE'S ELITESTARLIT KNIGHTVITAL SPRINGVILLA FIONNSONIC FIGHTERCHARITY WINGSPRO FITBEAUTY ANGELBULB ELITE — wonELECTRIC LIGHTNINGDRAGON BOLTMILLENNIUM DAWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 175

PLACE

3 18.5

11 10.5

12 42

QUINELLA

11,12 134

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 24.5

3,12 122.5

11,12 56.5

TIERCE

12,11,3 1,621

TRIO

3,11,12 218

FIRST 4

2,3,11,12 419

QUARTET

12,11,3,2 11,954

1ST DOUBLE

5/11 23.5

5/12 787.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 28

A2 —

A1 —