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Happy Valley · 2020-02-12

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PING HAI GALAXY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with DIAMOND BRILLIANT second and BEAUTY SPARK third. The 3.4 favourite CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 PING HAI GALAXY 1.09.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · J Size 2 160.0 1/2
2 11 DIAMOND BRILLIANT B-/V1/TT J Moreira · T P Yung 1 8.5 1/2
3 4 BEAUTY SPARK B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 3 4.2 1-3/4
4 3 GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 9.9 2
5 1 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 3.4 2-1/2
6 10 VICTORY IN HAND TT A Badel · K W Lui 9 4.5 2-1/2
7 6 JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man 11 141.0 3-3/4
8 8 WHAT A LEGEND B C Schofield · K H Ting 5 6.4 4-1/2
9 7 SHOUSON B G van Niekerk · J Moore 10 21.0 6-1/4
10 12 FRESH POWER B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 6 46.0 7-3/4
11 2 ANONYMA TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 7 440.0 9-1/2
12 5 COPARTNER SPIRIT H/XB/B1 H T Mo · R Gibson 8 520.0 23-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PING HAI GALAXY2. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+0.5L3. BEAUTY SPARK+1.75L4. GREEN REIGN+2L5. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+2.5L6. VICTORY IN HAND+2.5L7. JADE THEATRE+3.75L8. WHAT A LEGEND+4.5L9. SHOUSON+6.25L10. FRESH POWER+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DIAMOND BRILLIANT (22.3%) finished 2nd — the winner PING HAI GALAXY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 22.3% 4.49 2
2 1 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 19.5% 5.14 5
3 10 VICTORY IN HAND 14.4% 6.93 6
4 4 BEAUTY SPARK 14.1% 7.10 3
5 8 WHAT A LEGEND 10.2% 9.84 8
6 7 SHOUSON 7.3% 13.64 9
7 3 GREEN REIGN 5.5% 18.07 4
8 12 FRESH POWER 3.4% 29.74 10
9 9 PING HAI GALAXY 2.3% 44.00 1
10 6 JADE THEATRE 0.5% 213.06 7
11 5 COPARTNER SPIRIT 0.4% 279.56 12
12 2 ANONYMA 0.3% 353.89 11
DIAMOND BRILLIANTCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTVICTORY IN HANDBEAUTY SPARKWHAT A LEGENDSHOUSONGREEN REIGNFRESH POWERPING HAI GALAXY — wonJADE THEATRECOPARTNER SPIRITANONYMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 1,603

PLACE

4 15.5

9 245

11 23

QUINELLA

9,11 4,263

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 574

4,11 62

9,11 939

TIERCE

9,11,4 30,534

TRIO

4,9,11 3,178

FIRST 4

3,4,9,11 3,314

QUARTET

9,11,4,3 140,370

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 49

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,9/4,9,11 476,688

7TH DOUBLE

9/9 4,135.5

9/11 65.5

SIX UP

3,5/1,12/3,4/3,10/8,9/9,11 72,330

3 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

10/9/9 11,745

10/9/11 70