Happy Valley · 2020-02-12
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PING HAI GALAXY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with DIAMOND BRILLIANT second and BEAUTY SPARK third. The 3.4 favourite CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | PING HAI GALAXY 1.09.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 2 | 160.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT B-/V1/TT J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 1 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 3 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | VICTORY IN HAND TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 9 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 141.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | WHAT A LEGEND B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 5 | 6.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SHOUSON B G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 10 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | FRESH POWER B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 46.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | ANONYMA TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 7 | 440.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | COPARTNER SPIRIT H/XB/B1 H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 8 | 520.0 | 23-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 22.3% | 4.49 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 19.5% | 5.14 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | VICTORY IN HAND | 14.4% | 6.93 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAUTY SPARK | 14.1% | 7.10 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | WHAT A LEGEND | 10.2% | 9.84 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | SHOUSON | 7.3% | 13.64 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | GREEN REIGN | 5.5% | 18.07 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | FRESH POWER | 3.4% | 29.74 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | PING HAI GALAXY | 2.3% | 44.00 | 1 |
| 10 | 6 | JADE THEATRE | 0.5% | 213.06 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | COPARTNER SPIRIT | 0.4% | 279.56 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | ANONYMA | 0.3% | 353.89 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 1,603
PLACE
4 15.5
9 245
11 23
QUINELLA
9,11 4,263
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 574
4,11 62
9,11 939
TIERCE
9,11,4 30,534
TRIO
4,9,11 3,178
FIRST 4
3,4,9,11 3,314
QUARTET
9,11,4,3 140,370
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 49
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,9/4,9,11 476,688
7TH DOUBLE
9/9 4,135.5
9/11 65.5
SIX UP
3,5/1,12/3,4/3,10/8,9/9,11 72,330
3 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
10/9/9 11,745
10/9/11 70