Happy Valley · 2020-02-12
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-12 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HEAVENLY THOUGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with WINNING DELIGHT second and SURREALISM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT Closed strongly H-/B2 1.39.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 1 | 2.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 5 | 27.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SURREALISM Closed strongly H Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 7 | 6.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 11 | 53.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SUPERB DADDY A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 2 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 12 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HAR HAR HEART L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 3 | 27.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | TOTAL POWER Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 77.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM Led early CP1/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 9 | 95.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | AWE XB/CP1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 4 | 15.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | UNIVERSAL GO GO C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 6.7 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SURREALISM | 11.7% | 8.52 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 8.8% | 11.39 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 6.6% | 15.05 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPERB DADDY | 5.2% | 19.06 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | TOTAL POWER | 4.5% | 22.38 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.8% | 26.01 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | BIG BANG BONG | 3.7% | 27.01 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT | 3.2% | 30.88 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 1.7% | 57.90 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | HAR HAR HEART | 1.6% | 61.45 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | AWE | 1.4% | 71.38 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 24.5
PLACE
3 67
4 19
10 11.5
QUINELLA
3,10 403
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 172
3,10 108.5
4,10 35
TIERCE
10,3,4 3,492
TRIO
3,4,10 679
FIRST 4
3,4,9,10 1,040
QUARTET
10,3,4,9 21,294
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/3,4,10 9,175
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
3/3 81.5
3/10 109
TRIPLE TRIO
1,8,12/2,3,4/3,4,10 3,078,982
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,8,12/2,3,4/Any Combination 3,931