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Happy Valley · 2020-03-04

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-04 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GALA NIGHT, ridden by K C Leung and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with DIONYSUS COLLIN second and PLAY WISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite DIONYSUS COLLIN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GALA NIGHT Closed strongly CP 1.49.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · J Moore 2 13.0 1/2
2 8 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly XB-/H J Moreira · K W Lui 5 2.9 1/2
3 1 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip 12 63.0 1-1/4
4 5 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 8.6 1-1/4
5 9 SANGRIA Closed strongly B C Schofield · D E Ferraris 6 20.0 1-3/4
6 6 FULL POWER Closed strongly B/XB N Callan · R Gibson 11 17.0 2
7 11 CURLING LUXURY H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 44.0 2
8 12 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard 7 10.0 2-3/4
9 7 BULLISH GLORY H M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 48.0 2-3/4
10 2 RULE THEE Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 9 4.1 4-1/2
11 4 CALIFORNIA LEGEND Led early TT G van Niekerk · A S Cruz 1 6.4 7-1/4
12 3 SALTO OLIMPICO B B Shinn · D J Hall 10 34.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALA NIGHT2. DIONYSUS COLLIN+0.5L3. PLAY WISE+1.25L4. CHEERFUL STAR+1.25L5. SANGRIA+1.75L6. FULL POWER+2L7. CURLING LUXURY+2L8. FORTUNE PATROL+2.75L9. BULLISH GLORY+2.75L10. RULE THEE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DIONYSUS COLLIN (31.4%) finished 2nd — the winner GALA NIGHT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 DIONYSUS COLLIN 31.4% 3.18 2
2 4 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 21.0% 4.77 11
3 2 RULE THEE 9.9% 10.15 10
4 5 CHEERFUL STAR 9.7% 10.33 4
5 10 GALA NIGHT 7.1% 14.08 1
6 6 FULL POWER 4.5% 22.32 6
7 12 FORTUNE PATROL 4.3% 23.38 8
8 1 PLAY WISE 3.1% 32.53 3
9 9 SANGRIA 2.9% 34.04 5
10 11 CURLING LUXURY 2.9% 34.87 7
11 7 BULLISH GLORY 2.3% 42.98 9
12 3 SALTO OLIMPICO 1.0% 102.80 12
DIONYSUS COLLINCALIFORNIA LEGENDRULE THEECHEERFUL STARGALA NIGHT — wonFULL POWERFORTUNE PATROLPLAY WISESANGRIACURLING LUXURYBULLISH GLORYSALTO OLIMPICO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 138

PLACE

1 163

8 13.5

10 35.5

QUINELLA

8,10 203.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 317

1,10 1,215

8,10 71

TIERCE

10,8,1 19,537

TRIO

1,8,10 3,331

FIRST 4

1,5,8,10 4,075

QUARTET

10,8,1,5 132,008

1ST DOUBLE

7/8 113

7/10 2,338.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 31.5

A1

A3