Happy Valley · 2020-03-04
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TANGMERE Closed strongly TT 1.40.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 2 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 0 | METHANE Closed strongly C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 10 | 5.9 | N |
| 3 | 0 | GREEN DISPATCH Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 5 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA Closed strongly CP-/B1 J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 7 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/H/TT G van Niekerk · R Gibson | G van Niekerk | R Gibson | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PLIKCLONE Closed strongly H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 46.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR E/TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 1 | 65.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | MIGHTY POWER M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 28.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | KANBEKI MOLLY Led early SR-/XB1 C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 4 | 26.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 0 | ORIENTAL ELITE N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TANGMERE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with METHANE second and GREEN DISPATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA | 27.2% | 3.68 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | TANGMERE | 23.8% | 4.20 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | FLAME LILY | 7.3% | 13.74 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | GREEN DISPATCH | 6.8% | 14.68 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 6.6% | 15.20 | 11 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW | 5.8% | 17.12 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 5.2% | 19.30 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | METHANE | 4.7% | 21.06 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | MIGHTY POWER | 3.8% | 26.13 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 3.6% | 27.66 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR | 2.7% | 36.61 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | PLIKCLONE | 2.4% | 41.80 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 29.5
PLACE
5 67
8 10.5
9 21
QUINELLA
8,9 100.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 132.5
5,9 210
8,9 35
TIERCE
8,9,5 3,289
TRIO
5,8,9 752
FIRST 4
5,6,8,9 498
QUARTET
8,9,5,6 12,420
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,9/5,8,9 32,345
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/8 176.5
5/9 41.5