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Happy Valley · 2020-03-04

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MASTER ALBERT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with AFTER ME second and SHANGHAI MASTER third. The 2.4 favourite CLASSIC POSH finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT 1.10.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 6 4.5 3/4
2 9 AFTER ME G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 5 10.0 3/4
3 2 SHANGHAI MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 14.0 1-1/4
4 3 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V M Chadwick · L Ho 7 7.8 2-1/2
5 8 SACRED TIMING B M F Poon · K H Ting 1 19.0 3
6 1 CLASSIC POSH B1 Z Purton · D J Hall 4 2.4 3-1/2
7 12 HAPPY PROJECT B-/TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 201.0 5
8 11 LOOK ERAS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 21.0 5-3/4
9 7 SMART OF YOUTH TT J Moreira · C S Shum 10 9.5 6
10 6 RESOLUTE C Schofield · A T Millard 3 78.0 6
11 10 HAPPY WINNER H K C Leung · C W Chang 9 96.0 6-1/2
12 4 FIRE BALL C Wong · C H Yip 11 20.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER ALBERT2. AFTER ME+0.75L3. SHANGHAI MASTER+1.25L4. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+2.5L5. SACRED TIMING+3L6. CLASSIC POSH+3.5L7. HAPPY PROJECT+5L8. LOOK ERAS+5.75L9. SMART OF YOUTH+6L10. RESOLUTE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SMART OF YOUTH (24.3%) finished 9th — the winner MASTER ALBERT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SMART OF YOUTH 24.3% 4.11 9
2 1 CLASSIC POSH 19.7% 5.08 6
3 5 MASTER ALBERT 17.2% 5.80 1
4 9 AFTER ME 9.7% 10.27 2
5 8 SACRED TIMING 6.9% 14.47 5
6 4 FIRE BALL 5.3% 18.74 12
7 3 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 5.0% 19.83 4
8 2 SHANGHAI MASTER 4.1% 24.13 3
9 11 LOOK ERAS 2.8% 35.44 8
10 6 RESOLUTE 2.4% 41.36 10
11 10 HAPPY WINNER 1.3% 76.14 11
12 12 HAPPY PROJECT 1.0% 99.19 7
SMART OF YOUTHCLASSIC POSHMASTER ALBERT — wonAFTER MESACRED TIMINGFIRE BALLSUMSTREETSUMWHERESHANGHAI MASTERLOOK ERASRESOLUTEHAPPY WINNERHAPPY PROJECT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 45

PLACE

2 34.5

5 14

9 25

QUINELLA

5,9 175.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 68

2,9 172

5,9 59.5

TIERCE

5,9,2 2,159

TRIO

2,5,9 436

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 919

QUARTET

5,9,2,3 15,740

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 531

10/9 133.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15.5

A2