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Happy Valley · 2020-03-11

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY WINGS, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with STAR MAJESTIC second and DOCTORS DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite DOR DOR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.41.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B 1.41.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum 8 8.5 1
2 2 STAR MAJESTIC Closed strongly B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 19.0 1
3 12 DOCTORS DELIGHT Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 4 13.0 2-1/2
4 4 SUNNY POWER Closed strongly M Chadwick · K W Lui 11 13.0 2-3/4
5 7 NUNCHUKS XB1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 11.0 2-3/4
6 1 DOR DOR Closed strongly H J Moreira · J Size 3 2.4 3-1/4
7 6 SNOW AIRJET B-/TT H W Lai · P F Yiu 2 21.0 3-1/4
8 5 AMAZING SATCHMO B Z Purton · D E Ferraris 1 3.9 4-1/4
9 9 KING PRINT B C Schofield · C H Yip 9 54.0 6
10 11 WILLFUL Closed strongly CP1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 123.0 7-1/2
11 10 VOYAGE STAR Led early B-/V2/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 5 16.0 9-1/4
8 FAITHFUL TRINITY N Callan · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY WINGS2. STAR MAJESTIC+1L3. DOCTORS DELIGHT+2.5L4. SUNNY POWER+2.75L5. NUNCHUKS+2.75L6. DOR DOR+3.25L7. SNOW AIRJET+3.25L8. AMAZING SATCHMO+4.25L9. KING PRINT+6L10. WILLFUL+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DOR DOR (21.4%) finished 6th — the winner CHARITY WINGS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DOR DOR 21.4% 4.68 6
2 5 AMAZING SATCHMO 19.7% 5.08 8
3 12 DOCTORS DELIGHT 13.9% 7.20 3
4 4 SUNNY POWER 12.9% 7.75 4
5 3 CHARITY WINGS 11.3% 8.85 1
6 10 VOYAGE STAR 7.0% 14.28 11
7 7 NUNCHUKS 6.4% 15.72 5
8 2 STAR MAJESTIC 2.8% 35.98 2
9 6 SNOW AIRJET 2.0% 49.54 7
10 9 KING PRINT 1.9% 52.70 9
11 11 WILLFUL 0.8% 130.16 10
DOR DORAMAZING SATCHMODOCTORS DELIGHTSUNNY POWERCHARITY WINGS — wonVOYAGE STARNUNCHUKSSTAR MAJESTICSNOW AIRJETKING PRINTWILLFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 85

PLACE

2 46

3 20.5

12 39

QUINELLA

2,3 674

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 177

2,12 329

3,12 105

TIERCE

3,2,12 8,468

TRIO

2,3,12 1,234

FIRST 4

2,3,4,12 2,357

QUARTET

3,2,12,4 47,986

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 141.5

1/3 359

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 36

A1

A3