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Happy Valley · 2020-03-11

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B 1.41.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum 8 8.5 1
2 0 STAR MAJESTIC Closed strongly B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 19.0 1
3 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 4 13.0 2-1/2
4 0 SUNNY POWER Closed strongly M Chadwick · K W Lui 11 13.0 2-3/4
5 0 NUNCHUKS XB1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 11.0 2-3/4
6 0 DOR DOR Closed strongly H J Moreira · J Size 3 2.4 3-1/4
7 0 SNOW AIRJET B-/TT H W Lai · P F Yiu 2 21.0 3-1/4
8 0 AMAZING SATCHMO B Z Purton · D E Ferraris 1 3.9 4-1/4
9 0 KING PRINT B C Schofield · C H Yip 9 54.0 6
10 0 WILLFUL Closed strongly CP1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 123.0 7-1/2
11 0 VOYAGE STAR Led early B-/V2/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 5 16.0 9-1/4
— 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY N Callan · R Gibson — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY WINGS, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with STAR MAJESTIC second and DOCTORS DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite DOR DOR finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY WINGS—2. STAR MAJESTIC+1L3. DOCTORS DELIGHT+2.5L4. SUNNY POWER+2.75L5. NUNCHUKS+2.75L6. DOR DOR+3.25L7. SNOW AIRJET+3.25L8. AMAZING SATCHMO+4.25L9. KING PRINT+6L10. WILLFUL+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DOR DOR (21.4%) finished 6th — the winner CHARITY WINGS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DOR DOR 21.4% 4.68 6
2 0 AMAZING SATCHMO 19.7% 5.08 8
3 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT 13.9% 7.20 3
4 0 SUNNY POWER 12.9% 7.75 4
5 0 CHARITY WINGS 11.3% 8.85 1
6 0 VOYAGE STAR 7.0% 14.28 11
7 0 NUNCHUKS 6.4% 15.72 5
8 0 STAR MAJESTIC 2.8% 35.98 2
9 0 SNOW AIRJET 2.0% 49.54 7
10 0 KING PRINT 1.9% 52.70 9
11 0 WILLFUL 0.8% 130.16 10
DOR DORAMAZING SATCHMODOCTORS DELIGHTSUNNY POWERCHARITY WINGS — wonVOYAGE STARNUNCHUKSSTAR MAJESTICSNOW AIRJETKING PRINTWILLFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 85

PLACE

2 46

3 20.5

12 39

QUINELLA

2,3 674

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 177

2,12 329

3,12 105

TIERCE

3,2,12 8,468

TRIO

2,3,12 1,234

FIRST 4

2,3,4,12 2,357

QUARTET

3,2,12,4 47,986

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 141.5

1/3 359

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 36