Happy Valley · 2020-03-11
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BLASTOISE Closed strongly SR 1.49.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 8 | 6.0 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | HOLY HEART Closed strongly H-/B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 5.1 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 32.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | WORLD FAMOUS Led early B/XB C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 12 | 7.3 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | NABOO STAR Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 3.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 11 | 31.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 5 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | I DO B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 4 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | PARTY TOGETHER TT1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | VINCY Closed strongly B-/V1/XB1/TT- G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 10 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GOOD OMEN B-/V2 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | GAYSON B/XB K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 9 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-11 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BLASTOISE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D E Ferraris, won by SH, with HOLY HEART second and ACCLAIMED LIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite NABOO STAR finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HOLY HEART | 27.5% | 3.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | BLASTOISE | 19.9% | 5.04 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | NABOO STAR | 11.1% | 8.99 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | VINCY | 8.5% | 11.82 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | PLAY WISE | 6.7% | 14.86 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | STIMULATION | 6.1% | 16.37 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | GAYSON | 4.1% | 24.21 | 12 |
| 8 | 0 | WORLD FAMOUS | 3.7% | 26.99 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 3.6% | 28.11 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | I DO | 3.5% | 28.18 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | PARTY TOGETHER | 3.1% | 32.14 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | GOOD OMEN | 2.2% | 45.54 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 60.5
PLACE
4 20
7 62.5
11 19.5
QUINELLA
4,11 146
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 257.5
4,11 51
7,11 247.5
TIERCE
11,4,7 5,729
TRIO
4,7,11 1,230
FIRST 4
1,4,7,11 1,705
QUARTET
11,4,7,1 37,157
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 30
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,9/4,7,11 47,638
7TH DOUBLE
1/4 25
1/11 248
SIX UP
2,3/1,9/1,9/4,9/1,9/4,11 1,206
3/1/1/4/1/11 112,980
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
4/1/4 137
4/1/11 1,318