Happy Valley · 2020-03-18
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ALPHA HEDGE Closed strongly CP 1.39.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 3.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED Led early TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 9.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY Closed strongly CP Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 5 | 4.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | HAR HAR HEART Closed strongly G van Niekerk · J Size | G van Niekerk | J Size | 6 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | CASIMIRO Closed strongly K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · K H Ting | J Moreira | K H Ting | 11 | 5.9 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | BULB ELITE C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 3 | 9.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | MEGATRON B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 10 | 35.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 12 | 77.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | ENJOY LIFE B V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 8 | 30.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 1 | 10.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 181.0 | 17-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALPHA HEDGE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with LIGHTNING STEED second and LET'S TAKE IT EASY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE | 24.8% | 4.04 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 12.8% | 7.81 | 11 |
| 3 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 12.6% | 7.95 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | CASIMIRO | 11.6% | 8.60 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | BULB ELITE | 9.4% | 10.60 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | ALPHA HEDGE | 7.4% | 13.56 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | MEGATRON | 5.8% | 17.36 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | HAR HAR HEART | 4.8% | 20.99 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | ENJOY LIFE | 3.8% | 26.13 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 3.6% | 27.44 | 2 |
| 11 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 2.4% | 42.43 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 1.0% | 95.65 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 35
PLACE
1 15
4 17.5
9 30
QUINELLA
1,9 204
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 36
1,9 85
4,9 97.5
TIERCE
1,9,4 1,503
TRIO
1,4,9 333
FIRST 4
1,3,4,9 1,132
QUARTET
1,9,4,3 19,214
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,11/1,4,9 211,800
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5
3RD DOUBLE
11/1 283.5
11/9 136