Happy Valley · 2020-03-18
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B-/V1 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 1 | 8.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | ARES Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 4.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | GUNNAR TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | AMAZING TT G van Niekerk · T P Yung | G van Niekerk | T P Yung | 12 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | REGENCY POET XB/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | THE SHOW B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | ONE STEP AHEAD TT T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 209.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | VICTORY MASTERY PC J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 4.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | YICHUN BLITZ B/XB2 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 5 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | FANTASTIC FABIO C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 8 | 32.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | COLORADO HIGH B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 4 | 15.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | SMART WONGCHOY XB/B1/H1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 10 | 10.0 | 10-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY GOOD GUYS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with ARES second and GUNNAR third. The 4.0 favourite ARES finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ARES | 24.6% | 4.06 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 21.2% | 4.71 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | VICTORY MASTERY | 15.2% | 6.58 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | YICHUN BLITZ | 8.4% | 11.92 | 9 |
| 5 | 0 | GUNNAR | 7.5% | 13.38 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | COLORADO HIGH | 5.5% | 18.14 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | THE SHOW | 4.5% | 22.15 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | AMAZING | 3.5% | 28.46 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | SMART WONGCHOY | 3.4% | 29.01 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 3.1% | 31.98 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | REGENCY POET | 2.1% | 47.96 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 0.9% | 114.40 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 82.5
PLACE
1 15.5
3 18
6 23
QUINELLA
1,6 162
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 39.5
1,6 55
3,6 72.5
TIERCE
6,1,3 1,659
TRIO
1,3,6 221
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 1,041
QUARTET
6,1,3,4 23,300
3 PICK 1
A2 27
A3 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 25.5
1/6 342