Happy Valley · 2020-03-18
Race 2
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B 1.09.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 9.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | WOOD ON FIRE CP-/H/V1 J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 4 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 5 | 7.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SHINING ON B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | AFTER ME G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PRIME TIME H V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 11 | 344.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | TOP MILITARY M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 171.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | APEX TOP C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 3 | 149.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | DR PROACTIVE H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 19.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | SMART THINKER B/XB B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 2 | 362.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | QIPAO BOSS M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 18.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with CONFUCIUS DAY second and WOOD ON FIRE third. The 2.9 favourite WOOD ON FIRE finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | WOOD ON FIRE | 36.8% | 2.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 16.8% | 5.94 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 8.6% | 11.58 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | AFTER ME | 8.5% | 11.83 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | SHINING ON | 6.4% | 15.73 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 6.1% | 16.47 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | QIPAO BOSS | 5.7% | 17.57 | 12 |
| 8 | 0 | APEX TOP | 5.5% | 18.12 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | DR PROACTIVE | 4.0% | 24.99 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | TOP MILITARY | 0.6% | 155.70 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | PRIME TIME | 0.5% | 192.64 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | SMART THINKER | 0.5% | 206.40 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 30
PLACE
2 21
9 13.5
12 12.5
QUINELLA
2,12 158
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 41.5
2,12 49
9,12 23.5
TIERCE
12,2,9 817
TRIO
2,9,12 108
FIRST 4
2,3,9,12 142
QUARTET
12,2,9,3 3,812
1ST DOUBLE
2/2 72.5
2/12 320
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —