跑馬地 · 2020-03-18
第 2場
2020-03-18跑馬地第2場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、W Y So訓練的EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE勝出，贏出1/2。CONFUCIUS DAY獲得亞軍；WOOD ON FIRE獲得季軍。2.9倍大熱門WOOD ON FIRE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B 1.09.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 9.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE CP-/H/V1 J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 4 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 5 | 7.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | SHINING ON B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | AFTER ME G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | PRIME TIME H V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 11 | 344.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | TOP MILITARY M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 171.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | APEX TOP C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 3 | 149.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | DR PROACTIVE H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 19.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | SMART THINKER B/XB B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 2 | 362.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | QIPAO BOSS M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 18.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE | 36.8% | 2.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 12 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 16.8% | 5.94 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 8.6% | 11.58 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | AFTER ME | 8.5% | 11.83 | 6 |
| 5 | 11 | SHINING ON | 6.4% | 15.73 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 6.1% | 16.47 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | QIPAO BOSS | 5.7% | 17.57 | 12 |
| 8 | 5 | APEX TOP | 5.5% | 18.12 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | DR PROACTIVE | 4.0% | 24.99 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | TOP MILITARY | 0.6% | 155.70 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | PRIME TIME | 0.5% | 192.64 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | SMART THINKER | 0.5% | 206.40 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 30
PLACE
2 21
9 13.5
12 12.5
QUINELLA
2,12 158
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 41.5
2,12 49
9,12 23.5
TIERCE
12,2,9 817
TRIO
2,9,12 108
FIRST 4
2,3,9,12 142
QUARTET
12,2,9,3 3,812
1ST DOUBLE
2/2 72.5
2/12 320
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14.5