Happy Valley · 2020-03-25
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-25 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEST ALLIANCE, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY WARRIOR second and SHINEALOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB 1.40.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 6 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | HAPPY WARRIOR Closed strongly CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 11 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly B1 T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | INVALUABLE Closed strongly B K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 8 | 74.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA Led early B J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | AMAZING SATCHMO Closed strongly B C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 4 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | NUNCHUKS XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 8.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | PLIKCLONE H- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY XB H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 3 | 68.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | HOME WIN Closed strongly B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 10 | 210.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 5.7 | 20-1/4 |
| — | 5 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 2 | 13.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA | 33.3% | 3.00 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE | 16.1% | 6.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 15.2% | 6.57 | 11 |
| 4 | 2 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 7.3% | 13.72 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | NUNCHUKS | 7.1% | 14.17 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 5.4% | 18.44 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | SHINEALOT | 5.3% | 18.77 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | PLIKCLONE | 5.1% | 19.76 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 2.4% | 41.56 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | INVALUABLE | 2.2% | 46.40 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | HOME WIN | 0.6% | 154.34 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 28
PLACE
1 12
2 34
12 58.5
QUINELLA
1,2 128.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 50.5
1,12 97.5
2,12 337
TIERCE
1,2,12 2,500
TRIO
1,2,12 807
FIRST 4
1,2,7,12 7,271
QUARTET
1,2,12,7 61,784
1ST DOUBLE
7/1 357
7/2 215
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A2 —
A3 —