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Happy Valley · 2020-03-25

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. JOLLY HONOUR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with NABOO STAR second and XIANG BAI QI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite CINQUANTE CINQ finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.39.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 4.5 3/4
2 7 NABOO STAR Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 4.4 3/4
3 5 XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly B1 C Schofield · D E Ferraris 2 8.2 1-1/4
4 9 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 3 25.0 1-3/4
5 12 SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan 4 10.0 2
6 2 BRAVE LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 5 33.0 2-1/4
7 3 CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly J Moreira · T P Yung 9 2.3 3-1/4
8 11 SUPER BULLET Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 8 397.0 7-1/2
9 10 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT CP-/B2/TT K C Leung · J Moore 1 38.0 9-3/4
10 1 GAMEPLAYER TIMES XB C Wong · D J Whyte 12 63.0 11-3/4
11 4 SUNNY LAD B1/TT1 B Shinn · A S Cruz 11 97.0 13-3/4
12 8 CHAMP PATROL Led early M F Poon · R Gibson 7 289.0 16

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOLLY HONOUR2. NABOO STAR+0.75L3. XIANG BAI QI+1.25L4. DYNAMIC EAGLE+1.75L5. SONIC FIGHTER+2L6. BRAVE LEGEND+2.25L7. CINQUANTE CINQ+3.25L8. SUPER BULLET+7.5L9. LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT+9.75L10. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CINQUANTE CINQ (27.4%) finished 7th — the winner JOLLY HONOUR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CINQUANTE CINQ 27.4% 3.65 7
2 6 JOLLY HONOUR 17.9% 5.59 1
3 7 NABOO STAR 17.1% 5.86 2
4 12 SONIC FIGHTER 9.8% 10.25 5
5 9 DYNAMIC EAGLE 8.0% 12.44 4
6 5 XIANG BAI QI 7.4% 13.49 3
7 1 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 6.0% 16.75 10
8 4 SUNNY LAD 1.9% 51.39 11
9 2 BRAVE LEGEND 1.7% 58.98 6
10 10 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 1.2% 83.73 9
11 11 SUPER BULLET 0.8% 121.43 8
12 8 CHAMP PATROL 0.8% 124.84 12
CINQUANTE CINQJOLLY HONOUR — wonNABOO STARSONIC FIGHTERDYNAMIC EAGLEXIANG BAI QIGAMEPLAYER TIMESSUNNY LADBRAVE LEGENDLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTSUPER BULLETCHAMP PATROL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 45

PLACE

5 21

6 15.5

7 15.5

QUINELLA

6,7 116

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 56

5,7 63

6,7 38

TIERCE

6,7,5 1,124

TRIO

5,6,7 221

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 725

QUARTET

6,7,5,9 10,429

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 23

A1

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

7/6 159.5

7/7 21.5