Happy Valley · 2020-03-25
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | WINNING METHOD TT 1.09.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 5 | 4.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SHINING GEM CP C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 12 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 7 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | GREEN REIGN B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 2.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | VICTORY POWER B/XB G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 9 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | FORZA ANGEL M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 1 | 41.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR SR-/B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 2 | 236.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 8 | 51.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | JADE THEATRE B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 125.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | PRANCE DRAGON B/TT B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 4 | 53.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 25.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 140.0 | 7-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-25 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING METHOD, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with SHINING GEM second and BEAUTY SPARK third. The 2.2 favourite GREEN REIGN finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREEN REIGN | 31.6% | 3.16 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | BEAUTY SPARK | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | SHINING GEM | 9.2% | 10.84 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | HINCHINLOVE | 7.0% | 14.19 | 11 |
| 5 | 0 | VICTORY POWER | 6.3% | 15.96 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | WINNING METHOD | 5.3% | 18.75 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | FORZA ANGEL | 4.2% | 24.00 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER | 3.8% | 26.50 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.7% | 37.07 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | PRANCE DRAGON | 1.5% | 67.36 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | JADE THEATRE | 1.2% | 86.44 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 0.9% | 112.31 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 49
PLACE
1 30
3 17.5
7 17
QUINELLA
1,3 216.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 80
1,7 91
3,7 39.5
TIERCE
3,1,7 2,088
TRIO
1,3,7 313
FIRST 4
1,3,6,7 201
QUARTET
3,1,7,6 6,842
3 PICK 1
A2 21
A1 —
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,7/1,3,7 11,349
7TH DOUBLE
6/1 191.5
6/3 287.5
SIX UP
1/11/6/7/6/3 154,668
1,12/10,11/2,3,6/7,11/6,7/1,3 7,385
3 [G van Niekerk] —
TREBLE
7/6/1 563
7/6/3 1,129