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Happy Valley · 2020-03-25

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-25 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WONDERFUL TIGER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with VIRTUS STAR second and GALAXY RACER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite GALAXY RACER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · W Y So 2 9.9 2
2 12 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly SR1 Z Purton · F C Lor 11 3.9 2
3 1 GALAXY RACER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 3.0 3-1/4
4 2 BUNDLE OF ENERGY B J Moreira · D J Hall 10 9.4 3-1/2
5 4 CHIU CHOW KID Closed strongly V2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 6 36.0 4-1/2
6 11 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS Closed strongly B M F Poon · R Gibson 7 33.0 6-1/4
7 5 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Closed strongly P G van Niekerk · J Size 12 33.0 8-3/4
8 3 GREAT HARVEST B M Chadwick · K L Man 4 3.7 9-3/4
9 6 VICTORY SONG B1 N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 84.0 13-1/2
10 9 GREAT SMART Closed strongly B2 H W Lai · L Ho 5 55.0 14-1/2
11 10 DIVINE POWER B C Wong · P F Yiu 8 51.0 15-3/4
12 8 TARGET FINDER Led early B1/H2 H N Wong · C W Chang 1 69.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDERFUL TIGER2. VIRTUS STAR+2L3. GALAXY RACER+3.25L4. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+3.5L5. CHIU CHOW KID+4.5L6. KWAICHUNG BROTHERS+6.25L7. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+8.75L8. GREAT HARVEST+9.75L9. VICTORY SONG+13.5L10. GREAT SMART+14.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GALAXY RACER (28.2%) finished 3rd — the winner WONDERFUL TIGER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GALAXY RACER 28.2% 3.55 3
2 12 VIRTUS STAR 15.6% 6.42 2
3 3 GREAT HARVEST 13.0% 7.71 8
4 2 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 12.9% 7.74 4
5 11 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS 7.9% 12.73 6
6 5 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 5.2% 19.22 7
7 7 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.8% 20.92 1
8 10 DIVINE POWER 3.7% 26.93 11
9 4 CHIU CHOW KID 3.5% 28.40 5
10 6 VICTORY SONG 2.6% 37.93 9
11 9 GREAT SMART 1.6% 60.86 10
12 8 TARGET FINDER 1.0% 100.83 12
GALAXY RACERVIRTUS STARGREAT HARVESTBUNDLE OF ENERGYKWAICHUNG BROTHERSMISCHIEVOUS SUNDAEWONDERFUL TIGER — wonDIVINE POWERCHIU CHOW KIDVICTORY SONGGREAT SMARTTARGET FINDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 99.5

PLACE

1 13.5

7 24

12 15.5

QUINELLA

7,12 193

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 51.5

1,12 29

7,12 62.5

TIERCE

7,12,1 1,230

TRIO

1,7,12 145

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 172

QUARTET

7,12,1,2 5,589

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 21