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Happy Valley · 2020-03-25

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · W Y So 2 9.9 2
2 0 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly SR1 Z Purton · F C Lor 11 3.9 2
3 0 GALAXY RACER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 3.0 3-1/4
4 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY B J Moreira · D J Hall 10 9.4 3-1/2
5 0 CHIU CHOW KID Closed strongly V2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 6 36.0 4-1/2
6 0 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS Closed strongly B M F Poon · R Gibson 7 33.0 6-1/4
7 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Closed strongly P G van Niekerk · J Size 12 33.0 8-3/4
8 0 GREAT HARVEST B M Chadwick · K L Man 4 3.7 9-3/4
9 0 VICTORY SONG B1 N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 84.0 13-1/2
10 0 GREAT SMART Closed strongly B2 H W Lai · L Ho 5 55.0 14-1/2
11 0 DIVINE POWER B C Wong · P F Yiu 8 51.0 15-3/4
12 0 TARGET FINDER Led early B1/H2 H N Wong · C W Chang 1 69.0 19-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-03-25 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WONDERFUL TIGER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with VIRTUS STAR second and GALAXY RACER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite GALAXY RACER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDERFUL TIGER—2. VIRTUS STAR+2L3. GALAXY RACER+3.25L4. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+3.5L5. CHIU CHOW KID+4.5L6. KWAICHUNG BROTHERS+6.25L7. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+8.75L8. GREAT HARVEST+9.75L9. VICTORY SONG+13.5L10. GREAT SMART+14.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GALAXY RACER (28.2%) finished 3rd — the winner WONDERFUL TIGER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALAXY RACER 28.2% 3.55 3
2 0 VIRTUS STAR 15.6% 6.42 2
3 0 GREAT HARVEST 13.0% 7.71 8
4 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 12.9% 7.74 4
5 0 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS 7.9% 12.73 6
6 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 5.2% 19.22 7
7 0 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.8% 20.92 1
8 0 DIVINE POWER 3.7% 26.93 11
9 0 CHIU CHOW KID 3.5% 28.40 5
10 0 VICTORY SONG 2.6% 37.93 9
11 0 GREAT SMART 1.6% 60.86 10
12 0 TARGET FINDER 1.0% 100.83 12
GALAXY RACERVIRTUS STARGREAT HARVESTBUNDLE OF ENERGYKWAICHUNG BROTHERSMISCHIEVOUS SUNDAEWONDERFUL TIGER — wonDIVINE POWERCHIU CHOW KIDVICTORY SONGGREAT SMARTTARGET FINDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 99.5

PLACE

1 13.5

7 24

12 15.5

QUINELLA

7,12 193

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 51.5

1,12 29

7,12 62.5

TIERCE

7,12,1 1,230

TRIO

1,7,12 145

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 172

QUARTET

7,12,1,2 5,589

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 21

A1 —