Happy Valley · 2020-05-06
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RICH AND LUCKY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by L Ho, won by 1-1/4, with DIONYSUS COLLIN second and BIG BANG BONG third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RICH AND LUCKY Wire to wire XB1 1.39.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 5 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H- C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | BIG BANG BONG TT C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly B-/SR2 K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 8.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | ROYAL RACER J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 4.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 7 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | VICTORY MASTERY PC K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 6 | 5.5 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | PLAY WISE B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 26.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER BULLET Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 167.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SPEED FORCE B/H/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 11 | 211.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | FLAME LILY TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 10 | 29.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | TOP MILITARY P- V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 8 | 227.0 | 12 |
| — | 0 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ROYAL RACER | 34.1% | 2.93 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | RICH AND LUCKY | 17.9% | 5.59 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 16.0% | 6.25 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC | 7.8% | 12.75 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | VICTORY MASTERY | 7.3% | 13.66 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | FLAME LILY | 4.4% | 22.74 | 11 |
| 7 | 2 | KING'S MAN | 4.3% | 23.17 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | PLAY WISE | 3.8% | 26.00 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | BIG BANG BONG | 1.6% | 62.47 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPER BULLET | 1.4% | 72.34 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | SPEED FORCE | 0.7% | 141.71 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | TOP MILITARY | 0.6% | 165.98 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 38.5
PLACE
1 25
3 17.5
10 23
QUINELLA
3,10 124.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 77.5
1,10 108.5
3,10 43.5
TIERCE
3,10,1 1,456
TRIO
1,3,10 345
FIRST 4
1,3,7,10 699
QUARTET
3,10,1,7 9,979
1ST DOUBLE
2/3 75.5
2/10 28.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 20.5
A2 —