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Happy Valley · 2020-05-06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE RUNNER, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with INTERSTELLAR second and HARMONY N HOME third. The 3.4 favourite HARMONY N HOME finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 THE RUNNER SR 1.10.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 6.0 3/4
2 9 INTERSTELLAR H/B1/TT N Callan · K W Lui 10 34.0 3/4
3 1 HARMONY N HOME J Moreira · C S Shum 1 3.4 2
4 6 DESTINE JEWELLERY V C Schofield · J Size 3 3.5 2-1/4
5 10 JAZZ STEED C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 9.3 2-1/4
6 4 HAPPY VICTORY B1/TT2 K C Leung · A T Millard 2 9.1 2-3/4
7 7 MILLENNIUM FALCON H/XB K Teetan · W Y So 11 12.0 2-3/4
8 2 MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P Z Purton · K H Ting 7 9.2 3-1/4
9 12 ONE STEP AHEAD TT T H So · P O'Sullivan 12 133.0 3-1/2
10 5 ALL YOU KNOW H-/B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 9 27.0 13-1/4
11 11 DASHING GRACE B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 8 422.0 13-1/2
8 STAR OF THEHARBOUR B Shinn · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE RUNNER2. INTERSTELLAR+0.75L3. HARMONY N HOME+2L4. DESTINE JEWELLERY+2.25L5. JAZZ STEED+2.25L6. HAPPY VICTORY+2.75L7. MILLENNIUM FALCON+2.75L8. MOMENTUM GALAXY+3.25L9. ONE STEP AHEAD+3.5L10. ALL YOU KNOW+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HARMONY N HOME (22.1%) finished 3rd — the winner THE RUNNER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HARMONY N HOME 22.1% 4.53 3
2 6 DESTINE JEWELLERY 20.7% 4.84 4
3 2 MOMENTUM GALAXY 18.4% 5.44 8
4 3 THE RUNNER 13.0% 7.66 1
5 4 HAPPY VICTORY 6.8% 14.64 6
6 7 MILLENNIUM FALCON 5.8% 17.35 7
7 9 INTERSTELLAR 4.2% 23.64 2
8 5 ALL YOU KNOW 4.2% 23.95 10
9 10 JAZZ STEED 2.5% 40.52 5
10 12 ONE STEP AHEAD 1.7% 57.76 9
11 11 DASHING GRACE 0.6% 164.69 11
HARMONY N HOMEDESTINE JEWELLERYMOMENTUM GALAXYTHE RUNNER — wonHAPPY VICTORYMILLENNIUM FALCONINTERSTELLARALL YOU KNOWJAZZ STEEDONE STEP AHEADDASHING GRACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 60

PLACE

1 15.5

3 19

9 80

QUINELLA

3,9 1,040.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 41

1,9 218

3,9 272

TIERCE

3,9,1 8,459

TRIO

1,3,9 1,124

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 669

QUARTET

3,9,1,6 19,710

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/3,9>1,8 51,882

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 19

A3

4TH DOUBLE

5/3 802.5

5/9 804