Happy Valley · 2020-05-06
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AFTER ME Closed strongly 1.39.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 10 | 22.0 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | EPTIWINS Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 1 | 3.8 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | METHANE Closed strongly B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 5.5 | N |
| 4 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | MISSION SMART Closed strongly H1 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 5 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 9 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | BULB ELITE Closed strongly C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 38.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | POLYMER LUCK B C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 11 | 40.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | PERFECT HARMONY B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 4 | 57.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | MOON PEAKS Led early B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 51.0 | 16 |
| 12 | 0 | REGENCY GEM B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 37.0 | 19 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AFTER ME, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with EPTIWINS second and METHANE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite LIGHTNING STEED finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EPTIWINS | 24.6% | 4.07 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 19.5% | 5.13 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | METHANE | 13.2% | 7.55 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | MISSION SMART | 8.3% | 12.09 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | REGENCY GEM | 7.7% | 12.92 | 12 |
| 6 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED | 5.9% | 16.81 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | AFTER ME | 5.0% | 19.88 | 1 |
| 8 | 0 | BULB ELITE | 4.7% | 21.14 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | POLYMER LUCK | 3.6% | 27.80 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | MOON PEAKS | 3.4% | 29.67 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | PERFECT HARMONY | 2.7% | 36.76 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 1.3% | 77.43 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 229
PLACE
1 17.5
5 52.5
9 13.5
QUINELLA
5,9 439.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 147
1,9 40.5
5,9 135.5
TIERCE
5,9,1 5,560
TRIO
1,5,9 577
FIRST 4
1,4,5,9 310
QUARTET
5,9,1,4 12,243
3 PICK 1
A3 46
A1 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/5 1,514
8/9 46.5