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Happy Valley · 2020-10-07

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAITHFUL TRINITY, ridden by V Borges and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with ALL YOU KNOW second and DAILY BEAUTY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.9 favourite DAILY BEAUTY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 FAITHFUL TRINITY Wire to wire H/TT 1.40.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · W Y So 10 5.5 HD
2 1 ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Badel · R Gibson 6 9.3 HD
3 4 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 3 4.9 3/4
4 5 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 8 5.3 1-1/2
5 6 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT N Callan · J Size 7 8.1 2-1/2
6 11 BULB ELITE M F Poon · C H Yip 5 12.0 3-1/4
7 8 ANONYMA H W Lai · D E Ferraris 1 17.0 4
8 10 TIGER GLARE Closed strongly H/TT1 M L Yeung · L Ho 4 75.0 5-3/4
9 9 EVEN KEEL B/XB K C Leung · A T Millard 2 6.0 6-3/4
10 2 THUNDER STOMP B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 24.0 9
11 7 JADE THEATRE B C Y Ho · K L Man 11 20.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAITHFUL TRINITY2. ALL YOU KNOW+0.2L3. DAILY BEAUTY+0.75L4. LADY FIRST+1.5L5. INCANTO PREPARED+2.5L6. BULB ELITE+3.25L7. ANONYMA+4L8. TIGER GLARE+5.75L9. EVEN KEEL+6.75L10. THUNDER STOMP+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DAILY BEAUTY (15.4%) finished 3rd — the winner FAITHFUL TRINITY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DAILY BEAUTY 15.4% 6.49 3
2 5 LADY FIRST 14.6% 6.85 4
3 6 INCANTO PREPARED 12.7% 7.88 5
4 3 FAITHFUL TRINITY 12.3% 8.10 1
5 1 ALL YOU KNOW 9.2% 10.91 2
6 9 EVEN KEEL 8.9% 11.23 9
7 8 ANONYMA 8.8% 11.39 7
8 7 JADE THEATRE 6.3% 15.88 11
9 2 THUNDER STOMP 5.8% 17.15 10
10 11 BULB ELITE 4.9% 20.30 6
11 10 TIGER GLARE 1.1% 93.10 8
DAILY BEAUTYLADY FIRSTINCANTO PREPAREDFAITHFUL TRINITY — wonALL YOU KNOWEVEN KEELANONYMAJADE THEATRETHUNDER STOMPBULB ELITETIGER GLARE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 55

PLACE

1 22.5

3 17

4 20.5

QUINELLA

1,3 196

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 71.5

1,4 56.5

3,4 61

FORECAST

3,1 341

TIERCE

3,1,4 1,535

TRIO

1,3,4 191

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 231

QUARTET

3,1,4,5 5,321

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/1 72.5

4/3 450

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 30.5

A3