Happy Valley · 2020-10-07
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-07 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GOUTEN OF GARO, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 2, with APOLLOS BOW second and FLYING MONKEY third. The 4.6 favourite LA BOMBA finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT 0.57.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 6 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | APOLLOS BOW B C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 2 | 7.3 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | FLYING MONKEY TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 3 | 4.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | LA BOMBA B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 4 | 8.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | AURORA STEED V N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 9 | 8.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B-/V1/TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 11 | 18.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 8 | 40.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | WONDER BRAHMA H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 50.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | FAIRY FLOSS B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | CORRE RAPIDO B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 7 | 12.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | ROMAN ODYSSEY B/XB V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 5 | 40.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LA BOMBA | 20.4% | 4.91 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | APOLLOS BOW | 14.7% | 6.81 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | FLYING MONKEY | 11.0% | 9.11 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | AURORA STEED | 8.4% | 11.86 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 7.5% | 13.27 | 8 |
| 6 | 11 | FAIRY FLOSS | 7.0% | 14.20 | 10 |
| 7 | 9 | CORRE RAPIDO | 7.0% | 14.34 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 6.2% | 16.06 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 6.0% | 16.60 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 5.7% | 17.49 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 4.5% | 22.36 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | WONDER BRAHMA | 1.6% | 64.40 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 60.5
PLACE
1 27.5
4 18.5
10 16.5
QUINELLA
1,4 230
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 77.5
1,10 61
4,10 49.5
FORECAST
4,1 391
TIERCE
4,1,10 1,729
TRIO
1,4,10 310
FIRST 4
1,4,8,10 166
QUARTET
4,1,10,8 4,521
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 26
A2 —