Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2020-10-07

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STOCK LEGEND, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with HIN YUEN BIS second and SIMPLY FLUKE third. The 2.3 favourite KINDA COOL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 STOCK LEGEND V 1.10.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 6.3 3/4
2 8 HIN YUEN BIS TT H N Wong · K H Ting 3 12.0 3/4
3 3 SIMPLY FLUKE P-/H/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 10 19.0 2-1/2
4 2 KINDA COOL Z Purton · F C Lor 7 2.3 3-1/4
5 5 GOOD SHOT XB M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 32.0 4
6 10 PRECIOUS SWEETIE V-/H/TT H T Mo · L Ho 6 49.0 4-3/4
7 1 HAPPY GOOD GUYS C L Chau · P F Yiu 2 7.3 5-1/4
8 6 AFTER ME H W Lai · D E Ferraris 11 155.0 5-1/2
9 7 HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 9 60.0 6
10 12 EVERBRAVE B M L Yeung · K L Man 1 59.0 7
11 9 ONE HAPPY STAR M F Poon · C H Yip 12 36.0 9-1/4
12 4 SELL MY SOLE E C Schofield · J Size 4 4.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STOCK LEGEND2. HIN YUEN BIS+0.75L3. SIMPLY FLUKE+2.5L4. KINDA COOL+3.25L5. GOOD SHOT+4L6. PRECIOUS SWEETIE+4.75L7. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+5.25L8. AFTER ME+5.5L9. HOT CHILI PEPPER+6L10. EVERBRAVE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KINDA COOL (37.5%) finished 4th — the winner STOCK LEGEND was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 KINDA COOL 37.5% 2.67 4
2 4 SELL MY SOLE 20.4% 4.90 12
3 11 STOCK LEGEND 9.1% 11.00 1
4 3 SIMPLY FLUKE 7.8% 12.81 3
5 1 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 7.5% 13.27 7
6 5 GOOD SHOT 5.2% 19.26 5
7 10 PRECIOUS SWEETIE 3.8% 26.65 6
8 7 HOT CHILI PEPPER 2.0% 49.05 9
9 12 EVERBRAVE 1.9% 51.31 10
10 6 AFTER ME 1.7% 58.69 8
11 8 HIN YUEN BIS 1.6% 63.74 2
12 9 ONE HAPPY STAR 1.5% 67.40 11
KINDA COOLSELL MY SOLESTOCK LEGEND — wonSIMPLY FLUKEHAPPY GOOD GUYSGOOD SHOTPRECIOUS SWEETIEHOT CHILI PEPPEREVERBRAVEAFTER MEHIN YUEN BISONE HAPPY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 63

PLACE

3 34.5

8 36.5

11 18.5

QUINELLA

8,11 314.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 271.5

3,11 120

8,11 91.5

FORECAST

11,8 962

TIERCE

11,8,3 6,166

TRIO

3,8,11 1,487

FIRST 4

2,3,8,11 750

QUARTET

11,8,3,2 23,543

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,6/3,8,11 178,892

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 29

A3

5TH DOUBLE

5/8 125.5

5/11 273.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,4/1,5,6/Any Combination 2,733