Happy Valley · 2020-10-14
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-14 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC FABIO, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/2, with TIGERLAD second and REGENCY GEM third. The 3.4 favourite FOX CHEUNGER finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FANTASTIC FABIO B- 1.10.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 5 | 5.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | TIGERLAD B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 6 | 8.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | REGENCY GEM B/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 3 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE H-/B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | WONDER BRAHMA H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 7 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | GREEN ENVY TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 12 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | ROCHFORD V C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 2 | 28.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | TARGET FINDER H/XB H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 1 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | RED ZOFFANY SR-/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 4 | 129.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | KA YING BRILLIANCE H/P/XB C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 11 | 78.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | THE ONE B/TT2 K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 21.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FOX CHEUNGER | 22.1% | 4.52 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | REGENCY GEM | 19.4% | 5.14 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 11.0% | 9.12 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | GREEN ENVY | 9.3% | 10.77 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | TIGERLAD | 8.1% | 12.35 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 7.8% | 12.85 | 1 |
| 7 | 7 | THE ONE | 6.1% | 16.51 | 12 |
| 8 | 10 | ROCHFORD | 5.0% | 19.94 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 4.4% | 22.89 | 11 |
| 10 | 8 | WONDER BRAHMA | 3.0% | 33.40 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | TARGET FINDER | 2.6% | 39.08 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | RED ZOFFANY | 1.3% | 76.44 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 53
PLACE
1 17.5
6 17.5
11 26
QUINELLA
6,11 204
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 44.5
1,11 98
6,11 70.5
FORECAST
6,11 383
TIERCE
6,11,1 2,262
TRIO
1,6,11 424
FIRST 4
1,6,9,11 781
QUARTET
6,11,1,9 13,989
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A3 —
A2 —