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Happy Valley · 2020-10-14

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-14 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WILD WEST WING, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1, with TRAVEL DATUK second and SIMPLY FLUKE third. The 4.4 favourite WINS ALL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WILD WEST WING 0.56.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 12 7.3 1
2 12 TRAVEL DATUK B A Badel · R Gibson 5 12.0 1
3 1 SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB/CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 4.8 1-3/4
4 10 WINS ALL TT K Teetan · W Y So 8 4.4 2
5 6 MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 5.0 2
6 7 WINNER'S HEART N Callan · F C Lor 7 15.0 2-3/4
7 2 MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting 10 17.0 3-1/2
8 4 FARM BUMPER C Schofield · K L Man 9 8.6 3-3/4
9 11 DESTIN B C Wong · P O'Sullivan 4 22.0 4-1/4
10 5 HAPPY JAI JAI B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 111.0 5-1/4
11 3 DAY DAY RICH B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 3 22.0 6
12 9 VIVA MAMA V/TT K H Chan · L Ho 2 38.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WILD WEST WING2. TRAVEL DATUK+1L3. SIMPLY FLUKE+1.75L4. WINS ALL+2L5. MANAGEMENT SUPREME+2L6. WINNER'S HEART+2.75L7. MOMENTUM GALAXY+3.5L8. FARM BUMPER+3.75L9. DESTIN+4.25L10. HAPPY JAI JAI+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WILD WEST WING (20.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 WILD WEST WING 20.4% 4.90 1
2 1 SIMPLY FLUKE 14.6% 6.87 3
3 4 FARM BUMPER 10.2% 9.83 8
4 6 MANAGEMENT SUPREME 9.9% 10.15 5
5 7 WINNER'S HEART 8.2% 12.14 6
6 2 MOMENTUM GALAXY 7.9% 12.62 7
7 10 WINS ALL 7.8% 12.74 4
8 11 DESTIN 7.7% 13.04 9
9 12 TRAVEL DATUK 7.2% 13.82 2
10 3 DAY DAY RICH 3.6% 27.96 11
11 5 HAPPY JAI JAI 1.9% 53.10 10
12 9 VIVA MAMA 0.6% 158.79 12
WILD WEST WING — wonSIMPLY FLUKEFARM BUMPERMANAGEMENT SUPREMEWINNER'S HEARTMOMENTUM GALAXYWINS ALLDESTINTRAVEL DATUKDAY DAY RICHHAPPY JAI JAIVIVA MAMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 73.5

PLACE

1 20

8 25.5

12 31

QUINELLA

8,12 441.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 71.5

1,12 93

8,12 152.5

FORECAST

8,12 800

TIERCE

8,12,1 4,617

TRIO

1,8,12 573

FIRST 4

1,8,10,12 761

QUARTET

8,12,1,10 23,562

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,10/1,8,12 31,605

3 PICK 1

A3 26.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

3/8 1,361.5

3/12 334