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Happy Valley · 2020-10-14

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-14 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BUDDIES, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with SOLAR WAI WAI second and AMAZING ONE PLUS third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BUDDIES Wire to wire H/TT 1.39.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A S Cruz 3 3.9 SH
2 10 SOLAR WAI WAI Closed strongly K Teetan · F C Lor 11 9.6 SH
3 6 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly H-/XB-/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 10 64.0 HD
4 9 GREEN LUCK Closed strongly V J Moreira · C Fownes 5 4.3 1/2
5 5 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly N Callan · Y S Tsui 8 16.0 3/4
6 11 BEAR AGAIN SR A Badel · D E Ferraris 9 15.0 2-1/2
7 1 PRECIOUSSHIP XB K H Chan · P F Yiu 4 27.0 4-1/2
8 3 NOT USUAL TALENT Closed strongly C Schofield · T P Yung 6 5.6 4-1/2
9 8 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B V Borges · J Size 2 15.0 5-1/4
10 4 ENJOYING B/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 12 23.0 7-1/4
11 7 ALPHA HEDGE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 10.0 7-1/2
12 12 FLYING QUEST B M F Poon · D J Hall 1 14.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUDDIES2. SOLAR WAI WAI+0.1L3. AMAZING ONE PLUS+0.2L4. GREEN LUCK+0.5L5. INSAYSHABLE+0.75L6. BEAR AGAIN+2.5L7. PRECIOUSSHIP+4.5L8. NOT USUAL TALENT+4.5L9. ENRICHMENT+5.25L10. ENJOYING+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN LUCK (33.1%) finished 4th — the winner BUDDIES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 GREEN LUCK 33.1% 3.02 4
2 7 ALPHA HEDGE 12.7% 7.88 11
3 2 BUDDIES 9.6% 10.46 1
4 10 SOLAR WAI WAI 8.2% 12.25 2
5 11 BEAR AGAIN 6.8% 14.79 6
6 8 ENRICHMENT 6.7% 15.03 9
7 3 NOT USUAL TALENT 6.1% 16.45 8
8 4 ENJOYING 5.9% 16.92 10
9 12 FLYING QUEST 4.5% 22.43 12
10 5 INSAYSHABLE 2.7% 37.58 5
11 1 PRECIOUSSHIP 2.6% 37.87 7
12 6 AMAZING ONE PLUS 1.3% 77.13 3
GREEN LUCKALPHA HEDGEBUDDIES — wonSOLAR WAI WAIBEAR AGAINENRICHMENTNOT USUAL TALENTENJOYINGFLYING QUESTINSAYSHABLEPRECIOUSSHIPAMAZING ONE PLUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 39

PLACE

2 17.5

6 134.5

10 32

QUINELLA

2,10 205.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 464.5

2,10 80.5

6,10 958

FORECAST

2,10 388

TIERCE

2,10,6 16,777

TRIO

2,6,10 5,370

FIRST 4

2,6,9,10 3,219

QUARTET

2,10,6,9 71,842

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 23

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,12/2,6,10 1,596,774

7TH DOUBLE

2/2 281

2/10 163.5

SIX UP

3,4/8,12/7,8/3,12/2,12/2,10 33,832

3/8/8/12/2/2 558,618

5 [C L Chau]

TREBLE

12/2/2 1,563

12/2/10 819