Sha Tin · 2020-11-01

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-01 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. BLASTOISE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D E Ferraris, won by N, with VINCY second and LONDON HALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite GOD OF DRAGON finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.01.07

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	BLASTOISE Closed strongly SR 2.01.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D E Ferraris	C L Chau	D E Ferraris	6	116 lb	9.7	N
2	3	VINCY Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte	Z Purton	D J Whyte	8	127 lb	4.6	N
3	1	LONDON HALL Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	1	132 lb	8.2	1-3/4
4	7	STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	3	119 lb	7.2	2
5	2	GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	2	127 lb	3.0	3
6	6	CHEERFUL LEADER Led early CP/XB C Schofield · P F Yiu	C Schofield	P F Yiu	4	121 lb	5.8	4
7	8	ABOVE B M F Poon · A T Millard	M F Poon	A T Millard	5	116 lb	24.0	4-1/4
8	5	CLEMENT LEGEND B/TT V Borges · C S Shum	V Borges	C S Shum	7	122 lb	11.0	13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick GOD OF DRAGON (34.7%) finished 5th — the winner BLASTOISE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	GOD OF DRAGON	34.7%	2.88	5	3.0
2	6	CHEERFUL LEADER	16.7%	5.99	6	5.8
3	3	VINCY	13.7%	7.32	2	4.6
4	1	LONDON HALL	11.2%	8.92	3	8.2
5	4	BLASTOISE	11.0%	9.10	1	9.7
6	7	STIMULATION	7.2%	13.84	4	7.2
7	5	CLEMENT LEGEND	3.1%	32.63	8	11.0
8	8	ABOVE	2.4%	41.20	7	24.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 97

PLACE

1 22

3 15.5

4 24

QUINELLA

3,4 251

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 58

1,4 84.5

3,4 71

FORECAST

4,3 429

TIERCE

4,3,1 2,116

TRIO

1,3,4 413

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 596

QUARTET

4,3,1,7 12,547

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 24.5

A3 —

A1 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99