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Sha Tin · 2020-11-01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RHAPSODY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by SH, with MY SUGAR second and JADE PHOENIX third. The 2.6 favourite MY SUGAR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 RHAPSODY 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 2 6.0 SH
2 5 MY SUGAR Z Purton · K H Ting 9 2.6 SH
3 4 JADE PHOENIX J Moreira · F C Lor 7 4.4 1/2
4 3 HELAKU KNIGHT H N Callan · D A Hayes 4 12.0 1-1/2
5 12 ONE HAPPY STAR M F Poon · C H Yip 6 7.1 1-3/4
6 1 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT C L Chau · W Y So 11 15.0 2-1/2
7 2 GOLDEN LINK B V Borges · P F Yiu 13 10.0 2-3/4
8 10 SURE WIN WIN C Schofield · T P Yung 10 145.0 3
9 8 ULTRA EXPRESS TT K C Leung · A T Millard 5 108.0 3-1/4
10 13 SEIZE THE SPIRIT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 3 67.0 3-1/2
11 7 CHARITY GRACE H1 A Badel · C S Shum 12 54.0 3-3/4
12 9 LUCKY RUBY H W Lai · K L Man 1 208.0 4
6 STAY CHILL T Piccone · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RHAPSODY2. MY SUGAR+0.1L3. JADE PHOENIX+0.5L4. HELAKU KNIGHT+1.5L5. ONE HAPPY STAR+1.75L6. MASTER ALBERT+2.5L7. GOLDEN LINK+2.75L8. SURE WIN WIN+3L9. ULTRA EXPRESS+3.25L10. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (35.7%) finished 3rd — the winner RHAPSODY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JADE PHOENIX 35.7% 2.80 3
2 5 MY SUGAR 18.7% 5.34 2
3 11 RHAPSODY 10.2% 9.84 1
4 2 GOLDEN LINK 8.5% 11.71 7
5 3 HELAKU KNIGHT 6.7% 14.99 4
6 12 ONE HAPPY STAR 5.5% 18.08 5
7 7 CHARITY GRACE 4.6% 21.58 11
8 1 MASTER ALBERT 4.1% 24.55 6
9 13 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 3.3% 30.00 10
10 10 SURE WIN WIN 1.2% 86.43 8
11 8 ULTRA EXPRESS 0.9% 113.81 9
12 9 LUCKY RUBY 0.6% 171.90 12
JADE PHOENIXMY SUGARRHAPSODY — wonGOLDEN LINKHELAKU KNIGHTONE HAPPY STARCHARITY GRACEMASTER ALBERTSEIZE THE SPIRITSURE WIN WINULTRA EXPRESSLUCKY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 60.5

PLACE

4 16

5 12

11 18.5

QUINELLA

5,11 104

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 25.5

4,11 53.5

5,11 39

FORECAST

11,5 211

TIERCE

11,5,4 986

TRIO

4,5,11 140

FIRST 4

3,4,5,11 321

QUARTET

11,5,4,3 8,446

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/5,6 38

8/11 1,323.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 35

A2