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Sha Tin · 2020-11-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. E STAR, ridden by N Callan and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with HEZA BEAUTY second and KA YING EXCELLENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite ANGEL OF MY EYES finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 E STAR Closed strongly H 1.21.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · K L Man 5 15.0 1-1/4
2 3 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly E A Badel · J Size 6 4.5 1-1/4
3 13 KA YING EXCELLENT Led early CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 7.0 2-1/4
4 12 TRUE LEGEND CP K Teetan · F C Lor 8 10.0 2-1/4
5 10 PURE LEGEND Closed strongly V1 M L Yeung · C Fownes 7 31.0 2-1/4
6 9 ANGEL OF MY EYES Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 12 4.1 2-3/4
7 8 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 13.0 3-1/4
8 2 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B T Piccone · A T Millard 3 13.0 3-3/4
9 7 MARVEL DRAGON B-/TT C Schofield · T P Yung 1 23.0 3-3/4
10 14 TRUST ME H K C Leung · C H Yip 14 15.0 4-1/4
11 11 CHANCHENG PRINCE C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 8.4 5
12 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT M F Poon · D J Hall 2 52.0 10-1/2
13 6 BLAZING BEAT H1 H N Wong · K H Ting 10 284.0 11
14 5 CHATER PINS B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 171.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. E STAR2. HEZA BEAUTY+1.25L3. KA YING EXCELLENT+2.25L4. TRUE LEGEND+2.25L5. PURE LEGEND+2.25L6. ANGEL OF MY EYES+2.75L7. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+3.25L8. GIFT OF LIFELINE+3.75L9. MARVEL DRAGON+3.75L10. TRUST ME+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ANGEL OF MY EYES (22.8%) finished 6th — the winner E STAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ANGEL OF MY EYES 22.8% 4.39 6
2 12 TRUE LEGEND 16.4% 6.10 4
3 3 HEZA BEAUTY 14.8% 6.78 2
4 13 KA YING EXCELLENT 14.3% 6.98 3
5 8 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 6.5% 15.32 7
6 4 E STAR 4.8% 20.63 1
7 1 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 4.1% 24.18 12
8 14 TRUST ME 3.8% 26.17 10
9 2 GIFT OF LIFELINE 3.8% 26.28 8
10 7 MARVEL DRAGON 3.6% 27.72 9
11 11 CHANCHENG PRINCE 3.5% 28.18 11
12 10 PURE LEGEND 0.8% 130.85 5
13 5 CHATER PINS 0.3% 290.54 14
14 6 BLAZING BEAT 0.3% 299.12 13
ANGEL OF MY EYESTRUE LEGENDHEZA BEAUTYKA YING EXCELLENTTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDE STAR — wonQUADRUPLE DOUBLETRUST MEGIFT OF LIFELINEMARVEL DRAGONCHANCHENG PRINCEPURE LEGENDCHATER PINSBLAZING BEAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 155.5

PLACE

3 18

4 37.5

13 25.5

QUINELLA

3,4 360.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 132.5

3,13 67.5

4,13 183

FORECAST

4,3 807

TIERCE

4,3,13 8,230

TRIO

3,4,13 896

FIRST 4

3,4,12,13 1,471

QUARTET

4,3,13,12 39,699

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 24.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,7/3,4,13 3,403,046

9TH DOUBLE

7/3 191.5

7/4 3,118.5

SIX UP

1,8/1,11/4,10/1,3,4/4,7/3,4 83,932

8/11/4/3/7/4 3,002,940

5 [C Y Ho]

TREBLE

3/7/3 1,551

3/7/4 25,197